NHL Predictions: Expert Picks on Monday, October 28th

NHL Predictions – Monday October 28th:

We've had an NHL weekend in which the betting favorites had a clear record of 17-3 and the home teams had a record of 15-7. The over cashed in 14 of the 22 games (1 push). Four of the eight favorites tonight are (-200+), and these heavy favorites have won eight straight and are 21-7 this season. As we make our NHL predictions tonight, keep in mind that this strategy would only net you 1.95 units for the season before targeting every major favorite as a lock.

Monday's eight-game card is highlighted by the Winnipeg Jets attempting to make it nine straight wins to open the season as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs have dominated this matchup lately. In Tampa, it will be Steven Stamkos' first game in the city that has been his home for 16 seasons as the Predators take on the Lightning. It's been a tough start for Stamkos, who has scored just one goal this season and has a plus/minus rating of (-7). The San Jose Sharks are still looking for their first win of the season and will look to avoid an 0-10 start against Utah HC.

7:30 p.m. ET

After losing their first five games to start the season, the Nashville Predators have won three in a row, including two one-goal victories over Chicago and Columbus. The Lightning ended the Washington Capitals' five-game winning streak on Saturday, defeating the Caps 3-0.

So now you know how these teams performed before today's game. That's all the in-depth analysis I'm giving you on these two teams, because today's game is about Steven Stamkos and his return to Tampa after playing 16 seasons for the Lightning. I mentioned earlier that when players return to play their former team, they put “money on the board” to incentivize a win. The only question that remains is whether it is a four- or five-figure amount.

I don't feel like betting on either team or the total of the game. I will focus exclusively on the prop market here. Here are the numbers behind the pieces. Filip Forsberg leads the Preds with 40 shots on goal and has had seven shots on goal in three of the last four games. Forsberg had five or more shots in five of Nashville's eight games.

This is more about my feeling that the Predators will do whatever it takes to get Steven Stamkos a goal tonight. He has the chance (+155) to score and his shot rating is listed as over 3.5 (+120).

In Nikita Kucherov's first five games of the season, he conceded over 3.5 shots on goal. Although he's put up points in every game, his volume shooting has declined, including Saturday night against the Capitals where he had a whopping zero. With Stamkos in the house, I say he fires all night long.

NHL Predictions: Steven Stamkos over 3.5 SOG (+120) – 1 unit
Filip Forsberg Over 4.5 SOG (+125) – 1 Uni
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 SOG (-105) – 1 unit

7:30 p.m. ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to end the Jets' eight-game winning streak early in the season. Toronto has won five straight games and seven of the last ten games between the two teams. They have held the Jets to two goals or fewer in four straight games and have scored at least three goals in each of the last four games against Jets goaltender Connor Hellebucyk.

Toronto's Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner had big successes against the Jets. Matthews has six goals and 10 points in his last six games against Winnipeg, and Marner has five goals and 14 points in 10 games.

NHL Predictions: Mitch Marner/Auston Matthews over ½ point each (+.78) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs TT over 2.5 (-155) – 1 unit

9:00 p.m. ET

It's been a difficult start to the season for Connor Bedard and the Blackhawks. Offseason additions should make the Hawks more competitive, but Chicago is suffering from a five-game losing streak and has picked up just two wins in its first nine games. The first of four road games begins tonight, and if history is any indication, the Blackhawks' losing streak will extend to six games.

The Avalanche have absolutely controlled the Blackhawks over the years. Colorado has won four of the last five (all by shutout) and eight of the last ten meetings against Chicago. The Blackhawks have lost six straight and failed to score four times in Colorado. The Blackhawks have scored two goals or fewer in six of their seven losses this season.

By now the avalanche seemed to have turned the corner. After losing its first four games to start the season, Colorado won five straight and benefited from a weak schedule. Colorado's five opponents have combined for 15 wins in 43 games.

No one had Ross Colton leading the Avalanche (8), not even his parents. Colton has scored a goal in five of the last six games and is also second on the team in shots on goal. Colton has exceeded his shots on goal in all but one game this season (2.5).

NHL Predictions: Ross Colton over 2.5 SOG (-155) – 1 unit
Chicago Blackhawks TT under 2.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche in regulation (-155) – 1 unit

10:00 p.m. ET

Calgary heads to a two-game mini-road swing with stops in Vegas and Utah. The Flames have lost two straight games and three of their last four after opening the season with four straight wins. Calgary has won two of the last three meetings in Vegas after losing the previous seven trips to Sin City.

After losing all three games on the road in the East, the Golden Knights returned home and won three straight games to improve to 6-0 at the Fortress. Vegas has scored 19 goals in its last three games and has scored six or more goals four times on home ice. Golden Knights center William Karlsson returned from injury and made his season debut on Saturday against the Sharks. Karlsson finished the game with a goal and an assist. He has 26 points in 25 games against the Flames.

The Golden Knights have scored a total of 1.5 goals in the first period in eight of their nine games. The Flames have conceded nine goals in their last two games.

NHL Predictions: Vegas/Calgary 1^st Period total Over 1.5 goals (-145) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights in regulation (-120) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights TT over 3.5 (-130) – 1 unit
William Karlsson Over ½ point (+105) – 1 unit