NLCS Game 4 Odds, Tips, Bets

The Mets showed resilience during their storybook season, and now they'll have to dig deep again in the NLCS, where they lost two games to one to the Dodgers.

It's familiar territory for the Mets, who pared their three postseason losses with wins, including a 7-3 decision after being shut out 9-0 in the first game of this series.

Carlos Mendoza will send left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound for Thursday's deciding Game 4 (8:08 p.m., FS1). Dodgers captain Dave Roberts will counter with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Here's a preview of the matchup at Citi Field with a prediction and picks.

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 odds

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 Prediction

Yamamoto bounced back with a great performance in Game 5 against San Diego after a terrible playoff debut in Game 1 of the NLDS.

His baseline results from these two games were pretty ugly, as he allowed an xBA of 0.278 and an xFIP of 5.43. He had a K-BB% of 0.0.

Even in Yamamoto's strong Game 5, he walked a fine line between dominant and happy, and on another night he might have allowed Manny Machado two home runs. He was hit hard 43% of the time in this game and struck out only two batters.

Yamamoto's speed was up to 96.7 and he threw quite well, but I'm not sure his performance deserves to be considered an ace again. He's still just a month away from being released from the IL due to a rotational cuff strain.

Oddsmakers aren't expecting Yamamoto to have a low start on Thursday, as his betting total for outs is 13.5 (over +105, bet365). The Dodgers' bullpen is under quite a strain after throwing a bullpen game in Game 2 and getting just 12 outs off ace Walker Buehler on Wednesday.

If Yamamoto doesn't get off to a deep start, Roberts may have to make some tough decisions in the midfield before putting his highly effective arms to use.

The Mets have had some elite pitchers in big moments this postseason. They have a WRC+ of 100 and an OPS of .698 during their magical playoff run.

Quintana was brilliant in his two postseason starts. He allowed no earned runs over 12 innings against the Brewers and Phillies. He had an xFIP of 3.49 with a K-BB% of 18.2 in these matchups.

Quintana will try to create soft contact by working the edges of the zone and trying to force batters to chase out of the zone. The Dodgers were far less effective against lefties, but also had the third-lowest percentage this season.

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 Pick

Thursday's conditions at Citi Field should benefit both starters, but could potentially help a contact pitcher like Quintana more, with the first pitch requiring temperatures of 52 degrees and the wind blowing from left center field.

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Quintana has been extremely effective this postseason and the Mets have proven they have a feel for this type of spot.

At +110 or better, I see value in backing the Mets to steal a win and even the series at home.

Pick: Mets (+120, bet365)

Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

Nicholas Martin breaks down the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but also has a 180 unit lead himself in verified picks on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.