No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas Predictions and Best Bets: Reality check for the Longhorns?

There was widespread speculation about how Texas would handle life in the SEC. The Longhorns are the top team in the AP College Football Poll and have the best chance to win the national championship, but coach Steve Sarkisian's squad hasn't been tested yet.

That should change on Saturday evening when Georgia enters DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas was a slight favorite early on and the spread increased as the week went on.

Georgia vs Texas predictions and best bets

• Texas -4.5: -115 odds at Caesars
• Below 56.5 total points: -108 odds at FanDuel

This new edition of the Bulldogs has not reached the standard set by teams of previous years. Georgia was devastated in the first half against Alabama and failed to secure a single win with a 41-31 win over Mississippi State at home last week.

I would be more inclined to support UGA if Texas had a grueling matchup against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. However, this is the opposite of how the game developed.

The Sooners took the lead in the first quarter before the Longhorns took control and won 34-3. QB Quinn Ewers was rusty in his first start since Week 3, but that was shaken off as the game went on.

I bet Texas will pass its first SEC test with flying colors. The Longhorns appear to be the most complete team in college football, ranking in the top seven in both offense and defense.

If Ewers and the offense get off to another slow start, the Texas defense will be more than capable of containing Georgia. The Longhorns lead the FBS in points allowed per game (6.3) and have been particularly dominant against the rush.

Georgia hasn't run the ball effectively and a UGA win could rest on the shoulders of QB Carson Beck. With 19 sacks and seven interceptions this year, that's a matchup advantage for the team in burnt orange.

My best bet for this matchup is Texas -4.5. I also expect Georgia to score limited points, which will result in an under.

Moneyline odds analysis between Georgia and Texas

Why Texas could be the favorite to win

Best odds: -198 at DraftKings

Offensively, the Longhorns are extremely balanced. Georgia can't slow down the unit by focusing on one player.

Three Texas ball carriers have more than 220 yards and four pass catchers have more than 240 yards. With playmakers all over the court, the Longhorns score 43 points per game.

If Georgia can apply pressure and make Ewers uncomfortable, it could cause the Texas offense to find itself in trouble for the first time. However, it won't be easy considering how quickly Ewers throws the ball.

The Longhorns have given up just six sacks this year; Second best in the SEC.

Why Georgia could win as an underdog

Best odds: +175 at Fanatics

The word “underdog” is rarely used in Athens. This is the first time Georgia has not been favored to win, including UGA's match in Tuscaloosa against Alabama.

Coaches like Kirby Smart who lead powerhouse programs often try to instill an underdog mentality in their players. The Bulldogs should actually have a chip on their shoulders come Saturday.

The Bulldogs' defense will have to step up for UGA to leave Texas with a win. Georgia has given up more than 30 points in two of its last three games and the unit has just 11 sacks.

If Texas lights up the scoreboard early, things could get out of hand before halftime.

Georgia also needs to get its rapid attack going. Power running has been a staple for the Bulldogs, but not in 2024.

RB Trevor Etienne has yet to reach 90 yards in a game. Continuing to use him as a pass catcher could be a recipe for success. Etienne is a playmaker, and Georgia would benefit from giving him more exposure through the air if he can't find handoff space.

However, if nothing works on the ground, a one-dimensional offense has little chance of defeating Texas.