Opening day of “The Last Dance” after “Venom 2”

“Venom: The Last Dance” is two steps slower in North America than its predecessors, having grossed $22 million from 4,131 domestic theaters on Friday and in previews. That's well below the first-day debuts of the first “Venom” in 2018 ($32 million) and its 2021 sequel “Let There Be Carnage” ($37 million). This means that Columbia Pictures' trilogy conclusion is also on track to fall short of its forecasts, which had predicted an opening weekend of around $65 million.

That's clearly a downward trend for the franchise in the US, although The Last Dance, co-financed by TSG, is still headed for its biggest domestic opening weekend since Beetlejuice dominated Beetlejuice in September. Sony is banking on international markets to bolster the fortunes of the “Venom” entry. The current expectation is that the parasite buddy comedy will easily surpass the world premiere of “Let There Be Carnage.” Both previous Venom films were smash hits overseas, with the original grossing a whopping $642 million outside of North America. And even at a fraction of that, the second entry still managed $293 million overseas.

“The Last Dance” has a smaller production budget than most superhero films at $120 million, but will aim for similarly sustained international audience participation to justify the price tag. Reviews have been poor, but that hasn't proven to be a hindrance for the “Venom” series so far. But this time fans are significantly less enthusiastic, as the “B-” grade from audience survey company CinemaScore shows. Both previous “Venom” entries received warmer receptions, each receiving a “B+.”

Aside from outliers like Disney's massive “Deadpool & Wolverine” this summer, recent comic book adaptations have struggled to attract the large audiences the genre attracted in previous years. Sony already suffered a superhero bomb this year with “Madame Web,” another “Spider-Man” spinoff that grossed just under $100 million worldwide. While “Venom” star Tom Hardy has teased the prospect of more “symbiote stories,” it's entirely plausible that “The Last Dance” could be the Marvel anti-hero's last appearance for some time, especially given the box office returns previous entries fall short of expectations.

Kelly Marcel, who wrote both previous Venom entries, directs this threequel, which sees Hardy return as emaciated journalist Eddie Brock and also provide the voice of the snarling, tough alien of the same name. He is joined by a crew of franchise newcomers including Juno Temple, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, Stephen Graham and Cristo Fernandez.

Paramount's “Smile 2” will slip to second place after being at the top last weekend. The horror film is budgeting $10.3 million for its second film, which would represent a 55% drop. It always seemed far-fetched that the sequel could repeat the minuscule 18% decline that the first “Smile” posted en route to a triumphant, word-of-mouth success of over $100 million domestically. Still, with a low production budget of $28 million, “Smile 2” is well-positioned to cross $40 million by Sunday.

“The Wild Robot” still remains in the top five and is expecting $6.2 million in its fifth weekend of release. The DreamWorks animation feature is expected to hit $110 million by Sunday. The Universal release will soon overtake “IF” ($111 million) and “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” ($113 million) to become the 13th highest-grossing domestic release of the year.

“Terrifier 3” is expected to gross around $4.5 million (down 51%) in its third weekend of release. Cineverse's indie horror triumph is expected to top $44 million by Sunday – three times the combined grosses of “Terrifier” and “Terrifier 2”, with more sales to come.

Also this weekend, Focus Features debuts its papal thriller “Conclave” after receiving strong reviews at the Telluride and Toronto film festivals. Directed by Edward Berger, whose last work, All Quiet in the West, was a technical winner at the Oscars, the Vatican-set feature grossed $2.5 million from 1,753 theaters on its opening day. “Conclave” hopes for continued success, bolstered by awards buzz, particularly for stars Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini.