Possible Tropical Storm Nadine spaghetti models as chances improve

There is a moderate chance that a system in the Caribbean Sea will develop into Tropical Storm Nadine by this weekend, and most forecasts have the storm moving in the opposite direction from Florida.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring several systems of interest this week, although the system in the Atlantic Ocean known as AL94, which previously had chances of becoming Tropical Storm Nadine, is now less likely to become a named storm.

However, the system known as AL95 in the northwestern Caribbean shows increasing chances that it could become the next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season by this weekend.

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Concerns about tropical activity increased in the US last week as people feared another tropical storm could be heading their way in Florida, shortly after back-to-back hurricanes Milton and Helene devastated the Sunshine State. However, most spaghetti models — computer models that illustrate possible storm paths — predict AL95 will track westward over Central America or Mexico.

A model shows the storm tracking northeast toward Florida. However, WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli previously said Newsweek that a cold front in the Sunshine State would temporarily protect the state from tropical storm activity.

Another model shows the storm moving north toward Texas, which is also unlikely given the disruptive winds off the Texas coast this time of year.

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Most models predict that if Nadine actually forms, it will remain a tropical storm or, at most, a Category 1 hurricane.

When reached for comment, an NHC spokesperson shared the following update Newsweek:

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“Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to occur in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with an extensive area of ​​low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive to further development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico on Saturday.

“Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall is expected in parts of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend,” the update continued. “There is a medium (50 percent) chance of it forming in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.”

Over the past week, the likelihood of a storm forming soon has increased. Meteorologists have been monitoring developments in the region since the beginning of this month.

The system in the Atlantic Ocean, known as AL94, is expected to be torn apart by strong high-altitude winds this weekend. Regardless of developments, AL94 could bring rain and wind to the northern Caribbean islands.