Preview: Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina – prediction, form, head-to-head

Italian WTA Finals debutant Jasmine Paolini takes over the return Elena Rybakina in round-robin play on Saturday.

The two-time WTA Tour winner has made a breakthrough in her season, moving up to fourth place. Their goal is to end the season in Riyadh on a positive note.

Game preview

© Imago

For a player who broke into the top 100 for the first time in 2019 when she finished 96th, taking part in the year-end finals was beyond her wildest dreams.

She finished the following season in the same position before finishing 53rd, 62nd and 30th in subsequent years before her stormy 2024 season.

The season was undoubtedly the best of Paolini's career, as she won her first WTA 1000 tournament in Dubai and reached, but fell short of, the championship matches at Roland Garros and Wimbledon Iga Swiatek in the former and lose against Barbora Krejcikova at the championships.

Although the 28-year-old has not reached a decisive point since her loss at SW19, she is aiming for a third Tour win over Rybakina to start the round-robin with a victory.

© Imago

Her opponent is a known quantity on the tour and her powerful serve is undoubtedly a weapon when executed flawlessly.

However, Rybakina's absence from the tour has raised questions about her level ahead of the week-long competition in Riyadh, as she has not played in any capacity since the US Open.

The eight-time Tour level champion's three titles in the first four months of the year have helped her reach the year-end tournament for the second year in a row and she is aiming to better her group stage exit in 2023.

World No. 5 has been announced Goran Ivanisevicwas accepted into her team on the eve of the tournament and hopes to get through a year marked by health problems and withdrawal symptoms with a good finish.

Having not played competitive tennis for almost three months, Rybakina faces a daunting task against this year's darling of the WTA Tour.

Head to head

French Open (2024) – Quarterfinals: Paolini 6-2 4-6 6-4

Stuttgart (2024) – quarter-finals: Rybakina 6-3 5-7 6-3

Cincinnati (2023) – Round of 16: Paolini eliminated 4-6 5-2.

Rome (2023) – Round of 16:Rybakina 7-6 6-1

Both women faced each other four times on the tour, with the direct duel being 2:2.

They have played two gigantic three-setters this season, although Rybakina's slump since the round of 16 at Roland Garros raises doubts about their level.

Paolini is 5-15 against top-10 players, with two wins in 2024 – against Ons Jabeur in Stuttgart and Rybakina at the French Open.

We say: Paolini wins in two sets

Although both women have played exciting threesomes this season, Rybakina's extended absence means she goes into the final in Riyadh with question marks.

We therefore support Paolini winning in straight sets at the expense of the returning Kazakhstanis.

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