Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña Picks, Odds, Time: UFC 307

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth on the biggest fights in the UFC. Today he takes a closer look at the co-main event of UFC 307: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena (ESPN+).

Raquel Pennington UFC 307 Preview

Raquel Pennington

Magazine information:

• Record: 16-9 MMA, 13-5 UFC
• Height: 5’7″ Age: 36 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67.5″
• Last fight: Decision victory over Mayra Bueno Silva (January 24, 2024)
• Camp: Altitude MMA (Denver)
• Stance/Punching Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Additional information:
+ UFC women's bantamweight champion
+ “The Ultimate Fighter” season 18 alum.
+ Regional MMA title
+ Amateur MMA awards
+ 1 knockout win
+ 4 submission wins
+ 2 first round placements
+ Constant pace and pressure
+ Puts shots together well
^ Often interrupts exchanges
+ Precise impact
+ Stays busy in the clinch
^ Improved defensive fundamentals
+ Underrated grappling game

Julianna Peña UFC 307 preview

Julianna Pena

Magazine information:

• Record: 12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC
• Height: 5’6″ Age: 35 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Amanda Nunes (July 30, 2022)
• Camp: Sikjitsu/VFS Academy (Chicago)
• Stance/Punching Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Additional information:
+ Former UFC women's bantamweight champion
+ Winner of Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter.
+ Regional MMA title
+ 3 knockout wins
+ 6 submission wins
+ 4 first round placements
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Combines punches when you feel confident
+ Well-conditioned athlete
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Prefers indoor and outdoor excursions
+ Solid transition gripper
^ Works well backwards
+ Effective ground striker

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña Interesting point: Bad blood

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña

The co-main event in Salt Lake City includes a women's bantamweight title fight that also has some bad blood attached to it.

Although Raquel Pennington and Juliana Peña's tenuous relationship dates back to their time on season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter, these two have never officially crossed paths inside the octagon – which is kind of crazy.

At the end of her show season, great respect was certainly shown to Peña, who emerged victorious for Team Tate. Peña has suffered some setbacks along the way, but her determination seems to be the ultimate force that drives her fighting abilities.

Sure, there may not be much to write home about when it comes to her skills on the feet, but Peña has clearly worked hard with Mike Valle and others to hone the rawness we've seen since the “TUF” house.

Now unusually, Peña is much more measured in her form, occasionally feinting or throwing away a right hand to deal with the left. Peña will still charge forward in the combination when she feels fit, but she showed some significant improvements in her striking skills in her series with Amanda Nunes.

However, when interacting with Pennington, Peña still has to be respectful of what comes her way.

Despite her submission victories, many associate Pennington with her impressive skills following her appearance against Jessamyn Duke on The Ultimate Fighter.

Pennington is naturally a smart but fierce fighter. She will step forward without hesitation, relying on her feints, footwork and the occasional Superman punch to push into space. While the champion's tip kicks can often spark a slugfest, it's often Pennington's jab that pays her bills on the feet.

Pennington varies her timing and pace and uses her jab in different ways.

Whether Pennington is using her jab to create combinations or checking it as she exits exchanges, the 36-year-old champion maintains a solid confidence when operating inside the pocket. From counter right hands to her patented uppercut hook returns, Pennington also does a good job of punctuating exchanges.

Whenever she's in the clinch room, Pennington demonstrates improved defensive fundamentals that help her sharpen her sensitivity to dirty, close-range boxing. However, given Peña's indoor abilities, I'm not sure how long she wants to stay in this room.

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña Breakdown: Potential Grappling Threats

January 20, 2024; Toronto, Canada, USA; Raquel Pennington (red glove) fights Mayra Bueno Silva (blue gloves) during UFC 297 at ScotiaBank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Considering both fighters are traditionally comfortable in closed spaces, I suspect the clinch will be a crucial focal point in this fight.

Although Peña is not afraid to take a shot, she secures the vast majority of takedowns through the clinch. Whether she's attempting inside or outside trips, Peña is extremely aggressive whenever she can get her hands around her opponent.

When Peña is able to take the fight to the stage on her terms, she is an all-around elite player who uses both punches and pressure to make opponents turn their backs. But if Peña fails and her aggressiveness earns her a place at the bottom, she will need just as much urgency if she wants to get back on her feet.

Although Pennington uses her grappling primarily in clinch phases, the Colorado native has quietly improved her wrestling – both defensively and offensively – in the later stages of her career.

Pennington may not be the superior grappler on paper, but on the ground she's anything but a fish out of water.

Aside from her stamina and composure, Pennington is a solid transition fighter who appears to be both competent and comfortable in many positions. She can stay active off the back while protecting herself, and when on top she can float well.

Pennington is also good at taking the back in transit, but I'm not so sure how much she'll deal with a fighter whose primary win conditions depend on that area.

Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the reigning champion, calling Pennington -180 and Peña +140 via FanDuel.

Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Peña Prediction, Picks

Raquel Pennington

Although Pennington is considered the clear favorite, one could argue that he is still one of the most underrated fighters in the division – even as champion.

Aside from not being the most popular fighter in the world, Pennington's boxing style of bodywork and counterpunching doesn't seem to be well received by either judges or fans. Still, Pennington has proven that she also has skills in the submission department – which should serve her well this Saturday.

Peña may thrive when she makes fights ugly, but Pennington, aside from being a solid clinch fighter, is one of the few women in this weight class who can match the toughness of “The Venezuelan Vixen.”

Combine that with the fact that Peña, who is 0-2 in high-flying (losses to Valentina Shevchenko in the UFC and to DeAnna Bennett in the regional circuit), chose not to come to Salt Lake City early, and that I appreciate Pennington's chances even more at this point.

Not only does Pennington live and train at high altitude in Colorado, but the current champion is also the more active and advanced fighter between the two. I will select Pennington to take a front choke submission in round 3.

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña start time, where to watch

As the co-main event in Utah, Pennington and Peña are expected to make their way to the Octagon around 11:45 p.m. ET. The main card will air on pay-per-view on ESPN+ after prelims air on ESPNews and ESPN+.