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See path, spaghetti models of the Category 4 storm

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See path, spaghetti models of the Category 4 storm

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Hurricane Kristy strengthened to a Category 5 storm Thursday evening before weakening back to a Category 4 storm, with rapid weakening expected throughout the day Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of Friday morning, the storm was located about 1,055 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California, and had maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph with stronger gusts.

Kristy is expected to make a turn toward the northwest later Friday, and the NHC says it is expected to move northwest to north-northwest at a slower forward speed over the weekend.

“Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through this morning, with rapid weakening expected this evening,” NHC forecasters said in an advisory Friday morning.

Meteorologists also said waves caused by Kristy will impact parts of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and Saturday, with the waves “likely to result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

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Is there a storm brewing in the Atlantic?

AccuWeather forecasters say there is a chance of a tropical depression or storm developing next week. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be Patty and Rafael.

“We suspect there will be another attempt at a tropical depression or tropical storm brewing in the western Caribbean mid- to late next week,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Record warm waters that have driven tropical development throughout the season continue, particularly in the Caribbean Sea. Combine that with a low probability of wind shear and you create conditions that are conducive to the development of tropical cyclones.

“A major storm or vortex could form again near the western Caribbean, which could promote new but slow development, considering warm waters and low wind shear,” AccuWeather said.

In the event that a storm develops and moves toward the U.S., there is some good news: “Long-range models maintain very hostile wind shear across Florida and along continental U.S. waters through the first week of November, providing protection from any storms “We're going to have a lot of trouble in the next few weeks,” WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry told USA TODAY earlier this week.

However, it is still too early to talk about the path of a possible storm.

“The track of a new tropical feature in the Caribbean will depend on exactly where it forms and the strength and extent of non-tropical features moving further north across the United States and western Atlantic,” AccuWeather said.

Hurricane Kristy Path Tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Kristy spaghetti models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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