Sinwar's killing opens up opportunities and great uncertainty for the war in Gaza

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israel's killing of Yahya SinwarHamas' top leader and mastermind of the group's Oct. 7 attack, represents a dramatic turning point in the brutal, years-long war it sparked.

Sinwar's killing on Thursday decapitates the already reeling Palestinian militant group Months full of attacks up and down his ranks. And it is a significant symbolic achievement for Israel in its fight to destroy Hamas.

The murder occurred just ten days after that of the Israelis and Palestinians marks a year since the deadliest fighting erupted in their decades-old conflict could set the course for the rest of the war or even bring it to a conclusion – depending on how Israel and Hamas proceed.

Sinwar's death could serve as a way for Israel to end the war

Sinwar, who was appointed head of Hamas After its former leader was killed in July in an explosion attributed to Israel, Hamas spent years building up Hamas's military strength and is believed to have planned the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. After that attack, when Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped about 250 others, Israel vowed to destroy Hamas kill every single one of his leaders.

Since Sinwar is at the top of the wanted list, his death is a major success for Israel. Analysts say Sinwar's killing offered Israel, which was struggling to formulate a disengagement strategy from Gaza, a way out to end the war.

“That would really be the icing on the cake for Israel,” said Nomi Bar-Yaacov, associate fellow of the International Security Program at the Chatham House think tank in London. “It should be easier to reach an agreement.”

With the architect of the October 7 attacks eliminated, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could now tell Israelis that one of the war's objectives had been achieved. Politically, this could allow him to be more flexible on a ceasefire agreement that ends the war in exchange for hostages – a condition he has so far refused to accept, at least in part, critics say, because it could threaten his rule.

Sinwar's death could have broader implications, depending on Israel's next steps

Analysts said this success was so groundbreaking that it was an opportunity for Israel to signal that it was ready to end fighting further afield in the region, including in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Hezbollah.

“The possibility of completely ending the war, just like in Lebanon, … is completely in our hands,” Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, told Israel's Channel 12 News, saying Israel must sinwars Use Death to set out his conditions for ending the wars on both fronts.

The families of the hostages in Gaza had a similar message for Netanyahu. A group representing the families welcomed Sinwar's killing but recognized the potential opportunity and called on Israel to focus its efforts on negotiating a deal.

“Netanyahu, don’t bury the hostages. Now go to the negotiators and the Israeli public and present a new Israeli initiative,” Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is being held in Gaza, said in a post on social media.

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, warned that Netanyahu has shown little sign of seeking an end to the conflict as the army has stepped up operations in northern Gaza in recent weeks.

“The war… is not over yet,” Netanyahu said in a video statement after the killing.

Netanyahu rules with the support of two far-right parties that have threatened to topple the government if the war ends under a ceasefire deal. After Sinwar's assassination, they reiterated their opposition to an agreement. They are also supporters of establishing Israeli settlements in Gaza, something the Israeli leader has publicly ruled out.

Netanyahu, who is on trial on corruption charges, has also seen his political fortunes rise over the course of the war after they plummeted in response to the Hamas attack last year. The prolongation of the war allows him to enjoy an increase in support after all the successes he achieves.

Other senior Hamas officials may be more lenient

Sinwar was considered a hardliner with close ties to Hamas' armed wing, and during repeated ceasefire negotiations with Israel, he was seen as having the final say on a deal for Gaza and the release of dozens of Israeli hostages.

Sinwar's positions were in direct contradiction to those of Israel. He stuck to calls for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire – even as more than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in the ongoing war, according to local officials, and many of the area was in ruins .

Elgindy said Sinwar's death will likely give the group's political leadership in Qatar more flexibility and control. They include Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashaal, key Hamas delegates to the months-long talks.

These leaders could be more responsive to pressure from Qatar, a key mediator that hosts some of Hamas' top leaders. Unlike Sinwar, these leaders are also not hiding in Gaza, which could accelerate progress on a deal.

Hamas leaders have proven to be interchangeable in the past

For Hamas, Sinwar's killing leaves a gaping hole in the militant group's leadership, whose future in Gaza and beyond is uncertain. It is a symbolic blow to a group that has already suffered several assassination attempts on its leaders.

Marwan Issa, deputy leader of Hamas's military wing, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March. Ismail Haniyeh, the former political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in the explosion in Tehran in July and Israel was blamed for it.

Then, in August, Israel said it had killed Mohammed Deif, Hamas' military chief and co-initiator of the Oct. 7 attack, in an airstrike. Hamas has not confirmed this death.

Elgindy called Sinwar's killing a “serious blow” to Hamas. But it is “not fatal because everyone is replaceable,” he added.

However, because so many leaders and commanders have been killed, it is not clear at this point who might follow in his footsteps.

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Jeffery reported from Ramallah in the West Bank. Associated Press writer Danica Kirka contributed from London.