Snowstorm(s) in the Colorado Front Range this week? Here's what we know now…

Our first “organized” winter system of the season is slowly moving away from Colorado today. It brought quite a bit of snow to the highlands! Check out the snow pole at Copper Mountain on Sunday evening below!

And there's another one waiting in the wings…

Our current system will fail Monday evening, but it could end up merging with a storm that is already starting to impact the Pacific Northwest. Check out the 500MB anomalies to guide you through the weather for the rest of the week (remember: blue = cold and stormy, orange = warm and drier)

A few important things to keep in mind:

1. As always, the positioning of this low is KEY to what happens for us up front. A track further south, which has been a trend so far this autumn, means there is a risk of significant snow further south too…
2. It looks like there will be a “first wave” from Tuesday to Wednesday, which will include a brief summary merge of the two storms discussed above.
3. It looks like Storm #2 will pick up steam and slide southward Wednesday into Thursday, likely causing a break in precipitation
4. The biggest snow boom Potential (but also Bust! (Potential) is from a potentially more impactful wave that would hit Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday where it will snow and even wind could become a problem throughout eastern Colorado.
5. More and more moisture is possible with these slower systems, and SOME modeling has indicated heavy snowfall potential across much of the state between Tuesday night and the end of the week.

Southern way to burn us?
There's a lot of excitement surrounding this new system, and you'll see why in the snowfall map below…but be careful. There's a lot at play here, and it's difficult to line up multiple waves of snow correctly!

Perhaps the biggest risk to the heaviest snowfall potential we're seeing now is that the secondary wave moves too far south and then east toward the end of the week for the heavier snow to wrap west along the Front Range. If it stays a little further north and west we should be in good shape to get some good snow.

At 500MB, the Euro ensemble picks up a pretty good course for us on Friday, moving it into the Panhandles and then hurling it northeast:

On the surface, however, some disagreement among members is apparent…with the location of the low varying quite a bit (indicated by the red numbers across southeastern Colorado into Kansas).

And then there's some spread in the deterministic models too… The GFS is largely a miss for snow in Denver, and you can see that there was really a lot of energy dug in too far southeast of us on Friday evening:

And it is this southern orientation in the GFS that we will be watching closely today. The operation (above) is scary if you want snow in Denver later this week, but the ensemble also had a pretty big shift to the southeast compared to yesterday. Below (left) is yesterday's run (with more than 1 inch of liquid for Denver) and the strike (right) is today's – a large time shift to the southeast.

Is the trend also evident in other models today? We'll see.

How we are currently dealing with the amount of snowfall:
The trend: some There is a chance of heavier snowfall, particularly with the second wave in mid to late week. The “upper end” of snowfall is still a bit up in the air at this point. Maybe way up in the air.

We have seen guides produce anything from several inches to a foot to two feet and in some cases above 2 feet for some along the Front Range.

The combination of models shows weak snow potential for Denver (remember, this is a combination of both waves), with the heaviest snow south of the city. But still some snow.

Here's what the (trusted?) EURO ensemble is printing (a combination of all the different waves through Saturday)… solid potential so far!

When breaking down 24-hour totals, there are a few things to keep in mind. We might see 2-4 inches for first-round Denver in the ensemble average and 4-5 inches in the second-round average. However, if you look at the individual members (along the Y-axis), you see that some produce as little as 0.1 inch of snow over the period, while others produce more than 20 inches! That's a HUGE range, and therein lies the uncertainty.

GFS and Canadian ensembles have similar snowfall potential across the state. However, some have different types of track/gauge, resulting in different overall front end values.

For pairing, we should be quite cold during this stretch of potential snowfall, with highs in the 20s and 30s.

Obviously there's a lot to keep track of…we'll have the latest on Weather5280 later in the week. The big question today will be: Will the JRC remain alone in its southward shift? Or will other models follow?

Stay tuned! https://www.weather5280.com/subscribe