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State of play: NPR

State of play: NPR

A view of the White House as the sun sets on the day after the presidential election.

A view of the White House as the sun sets on the day after the presidential election.

Ting Shen/AFP


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Ting Shen/AFP

A look at where things stand with Wednesday's election results at 7:20 p.m. ET:

It was clear overnight that Donald Trump would take the White House again, according to calls from the Associated Press in key states, and it is increasingly likely that he will do so with full control of the political levers in Washington.

Republicans flipped enough seats to take control of the U.S. Senate. They will have at least 52 seats in the next Senate and are currently leading in two other seats.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats appeared to have a shot at a majority overnight in the early hours of the morning, but that has changed. Republicans are currently leading with enough seats to retain control of the House, but there are many close races that have not yet been called and the AP stresses that it will take days, if not longer, to take control the House of Representatives is correctly determined.

The Presidency

Trump: 296 electoral votes
Harris: 226

What remains: Nevada and Arizona.

Trump leads by 5 points in both Nevada and Arizona. A victory would give Trump a final electoral tally of 313.

The Senate

Republican: 52 seats
Democrats: 44 (including Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats)

Republicans have taken over the Senate and have so far edged out West Virginia, Ohio and Montana.

What remains: Arizona, Maine, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Republicans are ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania. A victory for both senators would increase their total to 54 senators in the next Congress.

  • NevadaHowever, the margin is almost 4,000 votes out of more than 1.2 million, so with 85% of votes cast, it is unlikely the vote will be held any time soon.
  • Pennsylvania is within 30,000 with 95% of the vote.
  • Maine will likely choose Angus King, the incumbent independent who caucuses with the Democrats. With 92% of the vote, he is ahead by 18 points.

Last calls: Democrats got some good news this afternoon as incumbents Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan both won their races, according to the AP.

What about ticket splitters? The Democratic Senate candidates surpassed Harris for the lead in each of the Senate races that Republicans sought to flip. The only exception was Maryland, where Harris won by 23 points but Democrat Angela Alsobrooks defeated popular former Gov. Larry Hogan by 7 points.

However, this has not been sufficiently done in Montana, West Virginia, Ohio, and possibly Nevada and Pennsylvania. In the hotly contested blue wall states, the Democratic candidates only edged Harris by less than 2 points:

  • +13 in Montana
  • +11 in West Virginia
  • +7 in Ohio
  • +7 in Arizona
  • +4.8 in Nevada
  • +1.8 in Wisconsin
  • +1.1 in Michigan
  • +0.7 in Pennsylvania

The House of Representatives (218 required for majority)

Republican: 204 (Republicans need 14 more)
Democrats: 187 (Democrats need 31 more)
Not yet accessed: 44

The AP notes that the House of Representatives is not expected to convene this week. Here's why:

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the majority. The way it looks now:

  • The Democrats flipped 3 seats and are leading in two more of the 15 remaining Republican-held competitive seats.
  • Republicans flipped 1 and are leading in three of the 16 remaining competitive seats held by Democrats.

If all of this is true, the Democrats would only be +5, the Republicans +4 Democratic net gain of +1. That would give Republicans a three-seat majority.

But that will change. There are still many votes to be counted, especially in the West and especially in California, where eight seats are still up for grabs.

What we know so far from the early exit surveys

The final polls will change throughout the night as they are compared to the actual results at the end of the night. But the early exit polls, as reported by NBC and CNN so far, tell us a few things:

The most important topics For voters in the election campaign, the results of pre-election surveys are reflected like this NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll. For more than a third of voters, democracy was the top issue, followed by the economy (about 3 in 10 voters), abortion rights (1 in 7) and immigration (1 in 10). Foreign policy was a top issue in the low single digits – less than 10%.

A majority of Harris voters said democracy was their most important issue. Second to her was the right to abortion.

For Trump voters, the economy was most important, followed by immigration (1 in 5) and democracy (1 in 10). Nothing else was in double digits.

Harris voters said it was most important to have a leader with good judgment and someone who cares about people. Trump voters prefer someone who has the ability to lead or bring about the necessary change. Good judgment and someone who cares were in the single digits among Trump voters.

Americans are generally in a bad mood. Three-quarters said they were either dissatisfied or angry about the country's development. That's not surprising, because every month for the last 15 years, Americans have said the country is on the wrong path.

Nearly six in 10 said they disapprove of President Biden's job. And that may be due to the economy. Two-thirds said the economy was either not so good or bad, and more than 8 in 10 said inflation had caused them either moderate difficulty (53%) or severe difficulty (21%). Nearly half of voters said their family's financial situation is worse than it was four years ago.

But there was also great optimism among voters 6 in 10 said America's best days lie ahead; only a third said they were in the past.

Note: Exit polls are conducted by Edison Research and paid for by television networks such as CNN, NBC and others. NPR does not pay for Edison's exit polls or the Associated Press's VoteCast, which are not exit polls but rather very large exit polls or pre-election polls that are conducted right up until the polls close. Fox News' post-election analysis of the shape of the electorate and key issues and the like is based on AP's VoteCast.

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