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Stay up? Here's everything you need to know about election night

Stay up? Here's everything you need to know about election night

BBC A composite image from the BBC shows a man using a laptop and a woman holding a television remote controlBBC

After all the drama of an unparalleled election campaign, election day is almost upon us. It was an extremely close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and more twists are guaranteed after the polls close on November 5th.

So make yourself comfortable and buckle up. Our election night guide covers the key times and things to watch out for as we wait for a result.

The graph shows 22:00 GMT and 17:00 EST

First look at the exit survey data

After months of pondering what the American public will decide, we will now get a glimpse into their thoughts and motivations when the first exit poll data is released.

Election polls in the UK predict the final result once the polls close, but in the US it is very different. Rather than predicting the outcome, they provide insight into people's priorities and opinions – and later, how different demographic groups voted. Pollsters combine Election Day interviews with telephone surveys at both the national and state levels seven swing states.

Expect experts to talk a lot about these conditions as the night progresses – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania And Wisconsin – where the vote is difficult to predict and can lean Republican (red) or Democrat (blue).

Swing states They are believed to hold the keys to the White House. Both campaigns targeted voters in these battleground areas heavily.

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The polling stations on the East Coast close and the counting begins

The polls are now just around the corner Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont And Virginiabut these are not swing states, so the results are predictable.

But the vote will also be closed in the first swing state of the evening, Georgia. The victory of either candidate could be a clear indication of the direction the election could take.

Georgia was narrowly won by Joe Biden last time. It has also been the subject of false claims by Trump, who is accused of a criminal conspiracy to overturn his 2020 defeat.

The candidate with more votes than anyone else in Georgia will receive 16 of 538 deciding votes under the Electoral College system.

Harris and Trump both want to achieve a majority of 270 Electoral College votes to win the White House. This is more important than the “popular vote” or the statewide support they receive.

Shortly thereafter, at 7:30 p.m. EST (00:30 GMT), polls close in three additional states, including North Carolina. Outside the presidential campaign, there has been a lot of interest in the state's governor's race, pitting Attorney General Josh Stein against Trump-backed candidate Mark Robinson, whose campaign has been plagued by scandals.

The polling stations close at the same time Ohiowhere Trump's vice president JD Vance is a senator. In the meantime, the two campaigns will gather at their headquarters for the evening – we know it will be in West Palm Beach. Floridain the case of Trump.

At this point, some states may be “called” by US media. They use models to project or determine how a state voted even before the full vote count is complete.

This happens when they believe that a candidate has gained a lead that can no longer be beaten by his opponent. In some hotly contested swing states, this could take a long time.

The models used by the media rely on a variety of data, such as election polls and actual votes counted by officials. The BBC receives this data from a company called Edison Research.

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An excitement, even in crucial Pennsylvania

More surveys will be closed, especially in Pennsylvaniathe biggest swing state prize in 2024 with 19 electoral votes. It is also a state that is part of the Rust Belt – areas that were once dominated by industry and have experienced industrial decline in recent decades.

This is where a few counties like Erie and Northampton could end up making a difference.

Around now, at 8:30 p.m. EST (01:30 GMT), we expect more exit poll data – including a nationwide breakdown of voting by age, race and college education. This is preliminary data and will be refined over a period of weeks.

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All eyes are on swing states

Polls are closing in battleground states, including Michigan And Wisconsin. That's 02:00 GMT for those in the UK now pushing midnight.

There were also no surveys Arizona – a flashpoint for the country's immigration debate – followed by Nevada, where an hour later both parties tried to appeal to working-class voters by promising to eliminate taxes on tips.

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The remaining polls are closed – will it be a waiting game?

At 11:00 p.m. EDT (04:00 GMT), polls will close in the remaining states that border the US mainland. The last two states close a little later – Hawaii at 00:00 EDT (05:00 GMT) and Alaska at 01:00 EDT on Wednesday (06:00 GMT).

Traditionally, it was shortly after voting ended at 11:00 p.m. EDT California that the race as a whole was called for one candidate or another. Not long later, the losing candidate made a concession speech.

But few observers expect a quick solution this year. Some predict it could take days rather than hours to decide the winner.

In recent elections, the increased number of postal votes has tended to delay the process. And different states have different rules for when they start counting.

A candidate who gains an early lead through in-person voting may end up being overtaken when absentee ballots and other types of ballots dropped in mailboxes are later added. This means early numbers can be misleading.

Other election campaigns – and big abortion votes

Despite the heavy focus on the presidency, voters will also elect new members congresswho enact laws and initiate spending plans. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are available for choice. In the senatewhere members vote on key government appointments, 34 seats are contested.

Currently, Republicans control the House of Representatives while Democrats have the Senate.

These two chambers can serve as a check on the White House's plans if the controlling party in one of the chambers disagrees with the president.

Voters in Montana, ArizonaMissouri, Nebraska, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevadanew York And South Dakota They will also be asked how their state should regulate abortion, which has become one of the most emotive issues of the election.

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Still awake?

If you're still up there, congratulations on making it this far, but there's a chance we'll have to wait a little longer to find out who won. The closer the race, the more votes need to be counted before a winner can be predicted in a given location. The complete statewide count typically takes days or weeks.

To give you a foretaste – in 2020 the result Pennsylvania And Nevada was projected four days after Election Day and in Arizonaafter more than a week at most outlets.

A very close fight could feel like a repeat of 2020. Or 2024 could be comparable to the year 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, which was controversial and ultimately decided in the US Supreme Court.

The head-to-head vote result predicted by polls and experts in 2024 could potentially leave the door open for legal challenges on both sides.

The night would only be the beginning of the drama – and not the last word on the 2024 election.

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North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher breaks down the race for the White House in his twice-weekly newsletter, US Election Unspun. Readers in Britain can register here. People outside the UK can do this Register here.

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