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Steve Garvey says he's now ahead of Schiff by single digits in the race for U.S. Senate – California Globe

Steve Garvey says he's now ahead of Schiff by single digits in the race for U.S. Senate – California Globe

Senate candidate and former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) said in a Wake Up America interview Wednesday that he is now in the single digits in the Senate race against Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), even though the polls have him down by about 20 points Quantify the backlog.

Previous polls, conducted largely by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), showed Schiff ahead of Garvey between 61% and 64%, with Garvey at between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe noted, PPIC polls in the past have been less than reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted just before the March primary that placed Garvey in the fight for the second primary spot against Congresswoman Katie Porter (D- CA) lost. Activote has also been viewed in the same light in the past, particularly with its small sample size of 400 voters and a 5% margin of error. In August, a PPIC poll showed Schiff ahead of Garvey 66% to 34%. A PPIC poll last month put it at 63% to 35%.

However, a UC Berkeley poll released in early August proved far more realistic, with many Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff only had 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest were undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60% – Garvey 40%. An Emerson College poll in August also showed Schiff winning just a few percentage points more of the vote, reaching 55% to 33% overall. With no undecided voters, the tally was with a margin of error for Schiff at 59-61% and Garvey at 39-41%.

Last month, the UC Berkeley poll showed the Schiff-Garvey split at 53% to 36%. A rate of around 60% to 40% was originally forecast. But the new changes showed it closer to 58.5% to 41.5% with the tie vote at 11%, potentially breaking Democrats' decades-long lock of over 60% in Senate races. The debate on October 8th should also lead to significant changes.

However, polls from PPIC and Activote were released last week after the debate, each showing that, minus the undecided vote that typically occurs closer to Election Day, Schiff is currently ahead 63% to 37%. In the current vote total, despite the new polls, Schiff is still under 58% to 35%, with about 7% undecided.

Still, Garvey said Wednesday: “People know me, millions of people have watched me play in Los Angeles and San Diego for 20 years. “They trust me. Suddenly, a little over a year ago, I decided to run in this one-party state and get people to stand up and get involved in politics again, and we've done some significant things in the last year. We are very optimistic. I wanted to manage to register more people than ever before in the last six months. We did that in all 58 counties. I wanted to encourage more really talented young men and young women to stand up and get involved in conservative politics in California.

“The California Senate seats are probably the most difficult seats because you start off about 25 points behind because of the disparity in registered voters. We started about 25 points behind, but now we think we're in the single digits. And I get up at this time every morning and fight for the people of California. And they know that this guy, who they've worked with many times over the years, is a true Californian, believes in them, believes in people and stands up everywhere. And we’re looking forward to next Tuesday.”

But how accurate is his claim that he is only one digit behind Schiff?

“For him to be behind Schiff by single digits now, we need to do best-case polling, apply the margin of error, and then push all the undecided voters toward him,” Stephanie Lewis, a Southern California Globe pollster, told the Globe on Wednesday. “In total that’s about 11-12 points. So the polls must be way off and Garvey must have a lot of undecided voters and independents on his side. Or it brings in voters who don't normally vote, which often gives the GOP a boost.

“Theoretically he can be in the single digits, but pretty much everything has to go his way. It's true that Latinos and Asians are increasingly saying they're voting for him, and it's also true that he'll likely get a slight “Trump bump” now that Trump is doing a little better in California. But we are only talking about one point.

“I think it’s more realistic for him to get to 40%. We've all been talking about that 40%, and that's because it's a clear sign that Republicans in California are improving. It has been decades since a Republican Senate candidate achieved so much in an election. If Garvey can get under 10 points at 45%, that would be incredible. But from what we know, 40% is far more likely. Again, I’m not saying it’s not possible, but for that to happen, everything has to go in his favor.”

Steve Garvey says he's now ahead of Schiff by single digits in the race for U.S. Senate – California Globe

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