Surprised to see Vandy upset Alabama? Don't be

A season ago, Vanderbilt finished 2-10 and 0-8 in SEC play and lost conference games by an average of 20.3 points. The closest result was a 31-15 loss to Auburn.

There was no earthly reason to believe that Vanderbilt football would be anything other than what Vanderbilt football always – or almost always – was. Not competitive.

But last offseason, coach Clark Lea brought in 43 new players, either through high school recruiting or the transfer portal.

On Saturday, the Commodores improved to 3-2 on the season with a 40-35 win over No. 1 Alabama.

It wasn't just fueled by the blood and guts of quarterback Diego Pavia (a transfer from New Mexico State), who threw for 252 and two touchdowns while adding 57 yards. He played behind three freshmen on offense – Steven Losoya (Mississippi State), Steven Hubbard (UTEP) and Chase Mitchell (Liberty) – who, along with returning senior starters Gunnar Hansen and Delfin Xavier Castillo, dominated the Crimson Tide.

Vandy outscored Alabama (418-394) and outrebounded Alabama (166-84). It also converted 12 of 18 third downs and went 1-for-1 on fourth down. It controlled the time of possession (42:08-17:52). There were 75 games played, compared to 45 for the Tide.

At least on Saturday, Vanderbilt was simply better.

This was a new team in a new era of college football. There's been a lot of talk about how the expanded 12-team playoffs create new paths for more teams to the postseason, but also give powerhouses like Alabama more chances to stumble. Not every loss is a detriment (not that that has ever been the case for teams like 'Bama).

The bigger development is that they need to be able to withstand these losses as it appears there will be more of them.

College football — or at least college football in the SEC — hasn't yet achieved the NFL's “Any Given Sunday” ethos, but that doesn't mean the competitive balance isn't flattening a bit.

The sport is more competitive than ever. While many incorrectly predicted that the name, image and likeness and immediate eligibility of the transfer portal would help the Alabamians of the world – the rich get richer – the opposite has proven to be true.

For years, the plan to win a national championship was to put together a series of top-five recruiting classes, something only a handful of programs had the resources, tradition and geography to accomplish. Just half a decade ago there were only three or four real title contenders in entire seasons.

Meanwhile, building from the basement for a program like Vanderbilt took years of slow steps amid setbacks. Almost no one has ever made it.

Now neither is true. The last two national championship games featured Michigan, Washington and TCU – none of whom had realistically competed in decades, but all bolstered by zero-incentive additions to the transfer portal and the return of existing talent.

Meanwhile, conferences have become flatter, although they have expanded to increase the number of heavyweight-on-heavyweight matches.

Keep in mind that No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon may have gotten through their respective conferences (Big Ten and Pac-12) and into the playoffs unscathed in recent years. Now they face off in a Big Ten conference match on Saturday in Eugene.

Then there is the weekly gauntlet run for each team. Vanderbilt, which had lost 60 straight games to top-five opponents, suddenly emerged as serious competition against Alabama. Maybe the flood could once have passed through them and only worried about major collisions – say, Tennessee in two weeks.

No longer.

For their part, the former fourth-place Volunteers suffered a stunning 19-14 loss to Arkansas on Saturday. After all, the Hogs were just 4-8 overall and 1-7 in the SEC last year. Coach Sam Pittman was firmly in the hot seat. Still, he brought in 40 new players, including 22 transfers, and Arkansas' rebuilt defense largely kept Tennessee's potent offense in check.

Every program has money. They've always done that. In the past, refreshment money has been passively spent on investments in facilities or coaching salaries in the hope of ultimately attracting better players. Most of the time they couldn't win the construction race.

Now the money can go directly to the players… and talent will go where there's money to be made.

At the same time, the depth of major programs is decreasing as players deep on the depth chart seek playing time at other schools; also up to the Group of Five level. This also weakens the tip.

Just a week into October, the SEC only has one undefeated team – Texas. The ACC is led by familiar names like Clemson and Miami, but SMU and Pitt are ranked and Syracuse is showing some serious life. It seems almost anyone can win the Big 12.

The playoffs will feature teams with two or three losses, which once seemed ridiculous. Familiarize yourself with this, because the schedules are now stricter and the distance within a league is smaller, so there will inevitably be more “surprises”.

The losers here are some Group of Five teams – New Mexico State certainly wishes it still had Pavia. However, there is some talent that is filtering through, and this year has seen a number of surprises and upstarts – from Northern Illinois to Notre Dame to the clear excellence of Boise State.

This is the beginning of a whole new era for the sport. The playoffs, of course, but more and more schools are using a modern way to build a roster and have the ability to turn a program around almost overnight.

That's what Clark Lea did last offseason, and on Saturday Vandy finally beat a top-five team. The biggest surprise was that it wasn't a surprise at all when you watched the game.