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Tammy Baldwin declares victory over Eric Hovde in Senate race

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Tammy Baldwin declares victory over Eric Hovde in Senate race

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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It appears that Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin's winning streak is continuing.

On a night when Republicans swept the race across the country, Baldwin announced her victory early Wednesday morning, saying she had defied the red tide by eking out a narrow victory over Republican challenger Eric Hovde and securing a third term in office US Senate secured.

“It is clear that the voters have spoken and our campaign has won,” Baldwin said in a statement. “The people of Wisconsin have chosen someone who will always put Wisconsin first, someone who will show up, listen and work with everyone to get the job done.”

With 97.3% of votes counted, Baldwin led Hovde 49.2% to 48.7% — a margin of nearly 16,000 votes — in a race that drew attention and big money across the country. Mail-in ballots had not yet been counted in Racine and Oshkosh, and all votes had not yet been counted in various locations in Oshkosh.

Baldwin officials said the numbers weren't final, but she had taken the lead and the lead was too big for Hovde to overcome.

The Democratic incumbent surpassed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who lost to former President Donald Trump by more than 41,000 votes.

The gut-wrenching victory means Baldwin still hasn't lost a race in her 38 years in politics, as she has steadily risen from Dane County supervisor to federal lawmaker.

In her statement, Baldwin said Wisconsin voters have rejected the wealthy individuals and special interests who “want to come to our state, spread hatred and division, and buy their way to power.”

“I am proud to return to the Senate as we embrace our state motto, ‘Forward,’ and continue to fight for the workers, farmers and families who make our state great,” Baldwin said. “From the bottom of my heart, it is an honor to serve the people of Wisconsin.”

Baldwin will sit in the minority in the U.S. Senate after Republicans relinquished control of the upper chamber on Tuesday night.

Hovde, 60, is running for the U.S. Senate for the second time. He lost in a four-way Republican primary in 2012, finishing second to former Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Some Republicans have already suggested that Hovde should consider running for another office.

“If he wants to run, he’s automatically the GOP front-runner for governor,” said one prominent Republican, pointing to 2026.

The race, which had no competitive primary, got off to a slow start. But that changed in the last two months when Baldwin accused Hovde of unfairly attacking her personal life and Hovde claimed Baldwin was spreading lies about him in her ads. The two engaged in a heated exchange in their only debate last month.

In the summer, the Democratic incumbent was ahead of the GOP challenger by 7.8 points in the average of all Real Clear Politics polls. However, in the latest Marquette Law School poll last week, that lead had shrunk to just one point.

Analysts have pointed to a number of factors that helped Hovde narrow Baldwin's once-significant lead. Among other things, voters from both parties rallied behind their party's candidates before the upcoming election day. In the past, Baldwin has garnered much Republican support. Hovde also took every opportunity to appear on television and radio, particularly on conservative stations, until Tuesday.

Both candidates spent heavily during the race

Baldwin raised a record $52.3 million during her six-year term in the Senate – a 40% increase from what she raised and spent in 2018. By comparison, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, spent $43.3 million seeking re-election in 2022.

Baldwin is currently the 76th richest senator and invested no money in her race. According to her annual financial filings, she has a maximum net worth of just over $1 million.

In contrast, Hovde, a banking and real estate mogul, has largely covered the costs of his campaign. Of the $29.5 million he raised for the competition, at least $20 million came out of his own pocket. Baldwin spent nothing on her race.

According to his financial disclosure form, Hovde has assets valued at $195.4 million to $564.5 million, much of it in real estate holdings in Madison and Milwaukee, corporate securities and stock in Sunwest Bank, the Utah-based financial institution of which he is chairman and CEO is .

In addition, outside groups spent more than $100 million denigrating the two candidates.

A flood of attack ads lowered Baldwin and Hovde's popularity ratings

Many of these television ads have attacked Baldwin and her partner, Maria Brisbane, a private wealth advisor from New York. Hovde portrayed the relationship as a potential conflict of interest, proclaiming in an ad: “Baldwin is in league with Wall Street.”

Baldwin and other Democrats said the television ads were a blatant attempt to highlight the fact that she is a lesbian. Baldwin is the country's first openly gay senator.

Additionally, Hovde and Republican groups dropped several commercials attacking Baldwin on transgender issues, something Republicans have done across the country and in the presidential campaign.

Baldwin and Democrats, meanwhile, continue to claim that Hovde is out of touch with Wisconsin residents because of his ties to California, where he owns a $7 million home in Laguna Beach. They also used many of Hovde's previous statements against him, including comments that overweight people should pay more for health care, that nursing home residents should not vote and that he understands black culture because his foundation has worked in Africa.

Several of Baldwin's ads ended with the question: “What's wrong with this guy?”

The ads had an impact: According to the most recent Marquette poll, both candidates were underwater in their favorability ratings.

The poll found Baldwin viewed positively by 45% and negatively by 50%, with 5% expressing no opinion. Hovde is viewed positively by 36% and negatively by 48%. About 15% of voters had no opinion of him.

Contact Daniel Bice at (414) 313-6684 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @DanielBice or on Facebook at fb.me/daniel.bice.

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