The betting markets' final election forecasts for 2024 are causing experts to sound the alarm

It's election day and although both candidates may be neck and neck in the polls, oddsmakers are showing a clear preference for one republican Victory.

Polymarket, a blockchain-based betting platform, has admitted Donald Trump a massive 38 point lead against Kamala Harris As of 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to a summary published by Forbes.

Other websites like Kalshi, Predict It, Robinhood and Interactive Brokers are also favoring a Trump win with percentages of 59, 51, 58 and 60, respectively.

Overall, those numbers give Republicans a 58.5% chance of winning against the Democratic Party in today's election, according to an aggregate counting tool Election betting odds.

Prediction markets, as websites that allow betting on the outcome of various real-world events are also known, have become a controversial topic in recent weeks.

Some experts have expressed concern that these platforms could potentially muddy the electoral waters through forecasts based on perceived investment opportunities rather than a broader view of political developments. The flow of money, particularly from foreign companies, can distort the results.

Polymarket, itself the largest prediction market in the world, is under particular scrutiny after it was revealed that a single French citizen had bet more than $45 million on a Trump victory, pushing the Republican candidate's odds up to 66% .

Still, the site has received significant support from Trump's most vocal and arguably most controversial supporter: Elon Muskwho has praised prediction markets for being “more accurate than (traditional) surveys because real money is involved.”

Billionaire investor and long-time Trump critic Mark CubanIn contrast, it has targeted the website, pointing out that US citizens are technically banned from trading on the platform and that “foreign money” is an unreliable indicator of the course of US political events.

Rajiv Sethi, an economist at Barnard College of Columbia University, also warned in an interview with Bloomberg that wealthy players from abroad could use cash to benefit Trump.

“There is no reason why the price resulting from their activities with each other should somehow generate an accurate forecast,” Sethi said.

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