The Dodgers' early pitching mistakes could mean another exit from the NLDS

Again, the point seems redundant at this point, but it's still worth repeating because it's the reason the Dodgers are on the verge of another divisional round exit: their starting pitching is atrocious.

The winter suspicions that became legitimate fears in the regular season have turned into complete disaster in these playoffs.

Incredibly, the problem everyone saw coming is somehow even worse than expected. In this National League Division Series, their starters have posted a combined earned run average of 10.13. The Dodgers trail the San Diego Padres two games to one in the best-of-five series.

The Dodgers' starter in their elimination game on Wednesday?

Still open.

As in: to be determined.

“I see one of our relievers starting,” manager Dave Roberts said, because the Dodgers don’t have traditional starters healthy or competent enough to pitch at this stage. Roberts will rely on a parade of relievers to go nine innings and extend his team's season.

If the Dodgers force a Game 5, they will start either Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was charged with five runs in three innings in Game 1, or Jack Flaherty, who was charged with four runs in 5⅓ innings in Game 2.

“This situation is not ideal,” Roberts said.

On the other hand, the situation could be even worse. Game 3 starter Walker Buehler, the record-setting pitcher in Tuesday's 6-5 loss at Petco Park, rebounded from a six-run second inning to go five innings. Because the Padres were the home team and failed to score in the bottom of the ninth, the Dodgers' bullpen only had to cover three innings.

“Walker did a good job of keeping his composure and still giving us some length and throwing a couple of zeroes after that (six-run inning),” Roberts said.

Such ineffective pitching starts must be evaluated on a curve, and since Roberts didn't call on Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier and Alex Vesia to pitch in Game 3, Buehler's start couldn't be classified as a complete failure.

Buehler's second inning cost the Dodgers the game, and that doesn't include Freddie Freeman's throw to second base that bounced off Manny Machado's helmet or the mistake Miguel Rojas made trying to hit a runner on second base. instead of throwing the ball to Gavin Lux, not included. Up to this point, Bühler could be described as a victim of misfortune. However, he soon contributed to his own downfall.

Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler delivered during a 6-5 loss to the San Diego Padres in Game 3 of the NLDS on Tuesday.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Buehler assisted David Peralta on a 1-2 count, only to hit him with a 95.5 mph fastball on the inside of the plate, which Peralta blasted down the right field line for a two-run double.

He also assisted the next batter, Jake Cronenworth, on a 1-2 count, only to give him a 97 mph fastball. Cronenworth hit the ball to the backhand side of Rojas and reached base with an infield single.

Later in the inning, Buehler had Fernando Tatis Jr. down 2-0. Buehler threw a 94.1 mph fastball to the inside of the plate that Tatis launched for a two-run home run that extended the Padres' lead to 6-1. The game was out of reach and not even a grand slam from Teoscar Hernández could fully erase the deficit.

“You can’t give up six runs in the playoffs and expect to win,” Buehler said.

There was a time when Buehler could strike out hitters with his fastball. When Buehler returned from his second Tommy John surgery this season, he lost that ability, prompting the Dodgers to emphasize the importance of him reinventing himself. Yet here he was, in his most important start of the season, trying to overwhelm his opponents as he had done earlier in his career.

“I’m not a guy with 10, 11 or 12 punchouts per nine (innings) like I used to,” Buehler admitted. “I think that as my career progresses there will definitely be some things that make me feel like I can do this. But at this point in the year, I'm trying to get people to put the ball on the ground. And I feel pretty good about a lot of the things I've done. Obviously the ones you're talking about, not a ton of them hit 110 mph, right? So you have found places and provided inspiration. I've talked ad nauseam about the momentum in the playoffs, but I just haven't been able to find any way to stop it.”

Only a small handful of starting pitchers have ever regained their previous performance after a second Tommy John surgery. So how can the Dodgers count on a pitcher who faces such a formidable obstacle?

That's because they figured if Buehler didn't return to form, some of their other long-term bets would take hold. They hoped Tyler Glasnow would stay healthy all season, even though he never did. They hoped that the undersized Yamamoto would dominate at a level he had never achieved before. They hoped Bobby Miller would develop into an elite starter.

Your misjudgment could cost you the season.