The importance of Pennsylvania's electoral votes in the 2024 presidential election

Regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, most experts agree that a path to the White House involves Pennsylvania's electoral votes.

In recent history, Pennsylvania's popular vote – which determines who gets the electoral votes – has been very close. In 2020, it took CBS News four days to project Joe Biden as the winner of the state's presidential election.

According to the latest U.S. Census data, Pennsylvania is the fifth most populous state in the United States with an estimated 2023 population of 12,961,683.

A state this large, with a population fairly evenly divided politically, becomes a state to watch on election night.

How many electoral votes does Pennsylvania have?

The number of electoral votes allocated to a state is based on the number of senators and representatives that state has in Congress and depends on its population. To win the presidency, a candidate must win 270 electoral votes.

Thanks to redistricting following the 2020 Census, Pennsylvania now has 19 electoral votes compared to 20 in the 2020 presidential election. It was the fifth consecutive census Pennsylvania lost a congressional seat.

Current voting trends in Pennsylvania

Since the 1992 presidential election in which Bill Clinton was elected president, most Pennsylvanians have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. The only outlier came during the 2016 race, when Republican challenger Donald Trump received 48.2% of the vote, compared to 47.5% for Hillary Clinton.

Since 1900, Pennsylvania has voted Democratic 45.2% of the time and Republican 51.6% of the time.

Although there are states with more electoral votes at stake, none of them are traditionally as close as Pennsylvania.