The Phillies are caught in the Sean Manaea crossfire

Mets fans have their own narrative: Sean Manaea was remarkable in Game 3 of the NLDS, keeping the Phillies at bay for more than seven innings and leading his club to a stunning 7-2 victory. Phillies fans also have their own narrative: The NL East champions played unrivaled baseball all evening, bringing them to the brink of elimination. The first narrative gives the Mets all the agency (they won because they played well!) while the second gives all the blame to the Phillies (they lost because they played so badly!), but that doesn't mean that neither of them can be TRUE. The Mets were firing on all cylinders in Game 3, and the Phillies didn't do much to stop them.

Going into Tuesday's game, all four division series were tied 1-1. This effectively made each series a three-game set – and a three-game set in which the lower seeds had home-field advantage. It's no secret that the Phillies love playing at Citizens Bank Park. Their home record of 54-27 (.667) was the best in baseball this season, while their away record of 41-40 (.506) ranked 13th. However, the Phillies still had an ace up their sleeve when they packed their bags and headed to Queens. They only needed to win one game at Citi Field and then return to another Zack Wheeler start in the bench. That's a big reason why they entered tonight's game with a 61% chance of advancing to the NLCS and the highest World Series odds among the eight remaining teams.

Manaea had something to say about that. The veteran left-hander is having arguably the best season of his nine-year career. His 2021 season was slightly better according to WAR and FIP, but his 3.47 ERA, 181.2 innings pitched, and 1.82 WPA were all career highs. The driving force behind his success this year was his sinker, which he used as his main throw (as he did in 2021) and which he threw with more horizontal movement. Neither PitchingBot nor Stuff+ were particularly impressed with the pitch, but the results spoke for themselves: According to Baseball Savant, Manaea's sinker had a run value of +15 in 2024, the fifth-highest mark among all sinkers in the league.

In Game 3, Manaea supplemented that sinker with a heavier than usual dose of his sweeper and changeup, opting to largely avoid the rest of his arsenal. Trimming his pitch mix has worked well for Manaea this year, and it continued to work well on Tuesday. He recorded seven swings and misses on each of his secondaries, for a combined whiff rate of 50%. This proved particularly helpful considering his sinker lacked some of his trademark horizontal break; The Phillies hit hard, putting six players in the game with an average exit velocity of 99.3 mph.

All in all, Manaea wasn't always sharp; He walked two batters, struck out two more and gave up six batted balls with a release velocity of over 101 miles per hour. But again, it's hard to argue with the results. He went more than seven innings on 91 pitches, and the only run he allowed was on a runner he gave up to Phil Maton in the top of the eighth pitch. He never threw more than 17 pitches or faced more than five batters in an inning. He gave up his fair share of hard contact and balls in the air, but never let any of them reach the stands; A few looked pretty good right away, but none would have left the field of a major league stadium. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Manaea kept the Phillies' two dangerous left-handers, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, in check. He also kept platoon bats Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott out of the lineup until his exit in the eighth game. The Phillies obviously needed to increase Manaea's pitch count and get him out of the game earlier, but they couldn't get it done.

The rest of the team provided more than enough support behind Manaea for Carlos Mendoza to feel confident giving his starter a long leash. The Mets scored seven runs on nine hits and five walks. Pete Alonso returned to Citi Field after bidding his potential farewell last month and hit a no-doubter in his first at-bat; Jesse Winker added a huge shot of his own two innings later. Eight of the nine players in the Mets' starting lineup reached base, and the only one who didn't, Tyrone Taylor, put up an excellent defensive performance to catch Alec Bohm, who was looking to turn a single into a double in the top of the fourth:

This play might as well be an introduction to the game's other central narrative: The Phillies were sloppy in Game 3. No single player deserves all the blame, but few escaped the evening's action without botching or botching something. Aaron Nola wasn't terrible; In fact, there were times when he looked quite good. His velocity was higher, he kept the pitch count low, striking out eight of them. He retired Francisco Lindor all three times he faced him. Still, the Phillies needed more than five innings and four earned runs from Nola. The Mets immediately sat on his four-hitter and he paid the price on Alonso's home run in the bottom of the second. He paid again when he gave Winker a juicy meatball down in the fourth; It was a slightly more hittable pitch than the similarly placed fastball that Winker had nearly sent into the pitches two innings earlier:

In the sixth, Nola got into more trouble, giving up a single to Mark Vientos and walking Brandon Nimmo to put two runners on with no outs. It was the first time he had to pitch with multiple runners on base and the first time he had to pitch with a runner in scoring position. At this point, we could blame Rob Thomson, who opted to let Nola face Alonso a third time instead of going to the bullpen. Only after Nola accompanied Alonso to load the bases did Thomson call for Orion Kerkering; The young fireballer recorded two outs before giving up a two-run single to Starling Marte.

Thomson made the same mistake in the following inning, this time allowing José Alvarado to face Alonso with runners on first and second. Alvarado has fallen way down the Phillies' bullpen depth chart since last October, due in large part to his ridiculously high walk rate against right-handed batters this year. Lo and behold, he accompanied Alonso to load the bases, and only then did Thomson call for a pitching change. Even stranger, Thomson used Jose Ruiz, who is known to have a low-leverage arm, and loaded the bases in a four-run ballgame. All-Star relievers Carlos Estévez, Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman sat waiting while Ruiz gave up a two-run single to Jose Iglesias.

And the Phillies' problems were hardly limited to pitching. There was Bohm's poor baserunning in the fourth. Immediately after Manaea issued back-to-back walks to open the top of the sixth, Harper was seen swinging three times. That's when Trea Turner failed to catch JT Realmuto's laser throw and give the win to Harrison Bader, who finished second at the end of the frame. Even Nick Castellanos' phenomenal second-inning catch in right field dropped the ball on transfer. It turned out to be no damage and no foul—the runner didn't advance anyway, and Nola got out of the inning unscathed—but it was another example of the Phillies failing to get it done:

A common theme for each of these debacles? The Phillies started with something good, only to blow it. Bohm hit a nice base hit into the outfield but was thrown out. The Phillies were finally able to get something done against Manaea with no outs, but missed the opportunity. Realmuto made a strong throw, but Turner missed the catch. Castellanos made a great catch, but dropped the ball before he could turn a double play. For lack of a better word, it was sloppy. Worse, it could have been an omen.

From 2008 to 2011, the Phillies improved their regular-season record every year, only to take a step backwards in the postseason. They won the 2008 World Series, lost the 2009 World Series, lost in the 2010 NLCS and lost in the 2011 NLDS. Now the current club is in danger of faltering again. They won their first NL East title in 2011, but are on the verge of an early postseason exit.

The Mets and their fans left the stadium with a great win on Tuesday. The entire team rallied behind an excellent Manaea to keep the magic alive against their toughest opponent yet. Meanwhile, the Phillies and their fans are completely disappointed with the overall sloppy performance. And of course these stories are connected. The Mets were only as good as the Phillies allowed them to be. The only reason the Phillies were so bad was because the Mets capitalized on their mistakes. Alonso's home run was his success And Nola's failure. The same goes for Taylor's great throw to pin Bohm at second base. Thomson's bullpen management proved poor only because the Mets' offense was relentless. Manaea looked so great because the Phillies' offense fell short.

With a 2-1 lead in the NLDS, the Mets are now the favorites to win the series. But they're only the favorites because the Phillies gave up that title, and the Phillies are only the underdogs because the Mets did it.