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The storm surge threat from Hurricane Milton is increasing. Here's what to look for in Tampa Bay.

The storm surge threat from Hurricane Milton is increasing. Here's what to look for in Tampa Bay.

Hurricane Milton has subsequently “intensified explosively” in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Way to Florida. Milton experienced rapid intensification, from a tropical storm to a strong one on Sunday morning Category 5 Hurricane in just 24 hours.

Any public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center will also make adjustments to the track of this storm system. Milton's forecast has the west coast of Florida in its sights, but the location of the storm's center, or “eye,” may determine how catastrophic the impact is on the Tampa Bay area.

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Satellite image shows Hurricane Milton over the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA/National Hurricane Center


As Milton strengthened with wind speeds into a major hurricane over 180 miles per hourThe strength of the system increased the severity of the forecast storm surge for all coastal areas, including the Gulf Coast of Florida. The eastern side of the eye is considered the “dirty side” of the storm, where winds tend to be strongest. As the predicted track shifts north, the dirty side will then fall over Tampa Bay. This in turn increases the risk of a storm surge in this limited area.

Additionally, the waters on Florida's Gulf side are much shallower than on the Atlantic side, which can cause storm surges to have an even greater impact on communities along the Gulf.

The National Hurricane Center increased the predicted maximum storm surge for the area from the Anclote River to Tampa Bay from 8 to 12 feet to 10 to 15 feet of inundation. This increased strength is a direct response to the storm's strength as its maximum sustained wind speed increased.

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Map showing forecast storm surge strengths for Hurricane Milton along the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay region.

NOAA/National Hurricane Center


“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and south of the landfall, where the high tide will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC said in a statement Monday afternoon. “Flood-related inundation depends on the relative timing of the tide and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.”

In another warning Monday evening, NHC said: “While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane as it makes landfall in Florida.”

All coastal residents and visitors are urged to follow current evacuation orders issued by local authorities.

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