The Trump camp is touting Republican early voting gains in 2020 as the election nears

The Trump campaign is increasingly optimistic about data showing Republicans gaining ground with early voting in battleground states compared to where the party was in the 2020 election cycle.

The campaign sees signs that new and infrequent voters are leaning more toward Republicans than Democrats compared to four years ago, based on the latest signs from the four battleground states that disclose partisan registration in early voting: Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania to a source in the camp.

In addition, “Democrats in these states have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not yet voted” — even though early voting is closed in almost all states — “and many “We didn’t even ask for an email vote,” the source said, suggesting that Democrats’ numbers may not be as strong this time.

Even in the other three battleground states where data on party affiliation in early voting is not available, there are a number of bright spots in the Trump campaign that could point to a positive outcome, the source said.

Here's some of the data that campaign allies have privately touted, mixed with other information about early voters to provide additional context:

Arizona

Returned Mail and Early Party Registration: Republicans rise 8 points.

Compared to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.

Early voting in the Grand Canyon State ended November 1st. Men made up about 50% of the vote for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, according to data shared with The Post.

Other groups also report obvious advantages for Republicans. For example, according to early voting data compiled by UpLift Campaigns, there were 924,524 ballot drop boxes for the GOP, compared to 736,569 for the Democrats.

Georgia

The Peach State does not have voter registration information for its early voting.

A look at data from Democratic analyst Tom Bonier shows that African American voter turnout is down 7% compared to 2020.

Early voting in Georgia ended on November 1st. Voter turnout increased to 4,004,588 this year through both early voting and absentee voting, compared to 2,697,822 early voters four years ago, according to Georgia Secretary of State data.

Michigan

The Wolverine State also lacks voter registration information for its early voting.

But the Trump campaign touts data suggesting that in-person early voters account for about 32% of votes cast before Election Day and that their supporters generally favor in-person voting. Early in-person voting is new in Michigan.

According to the Michigan Secretary of State's Office, more than 2.58 million of the more than 7 million people registered to vote in Michigan voted early.

North Carolina

Returned Mail and Early Party Registration: Republicans up 1 point.

Compared to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.

This appears to be the first time Republicans have won early voting in North Carolina.

Data from Bonier suggests African American mail and early voting responses here are down 22% compared to 2020. Men made up about 37% of Democratic support and 49% of Republican support.

Early in-person voting in the Old North State ended Nov. 2.

According to the University of Florida's Election Lab, of North Carolina's roughly 7.8 million registered voters, about 4.4 million early votes were cast, including 1,478,496 for Republicans, 1,436,861 for Democrats and 1,524,094 without party registration .

Nevada

Returned Mail and Early Party Registration: Republicans Up 4 Points.

Compared to 2020: Republicans are up 8 points.

Early in-person voting closed on November 1st. About 42% of the Democratic vote came from men and 52% from Republicans.

According to the data, a total of about 1,077,441 voters in Nevada voted early, including 406,705 Republicans and 363,595 Democrats.

Pennsylvania

Returned Mail and Early Party Registration: Democrats Up 23 Points

Compared to 2020: The Republicans are doing 22 points better.

The Trump campaign expects Democrats' advantage in early voting in the Keystone State to have declined compared to previous elections, and the total number of absentee votes to be down about 29% compared to the 2020 cycle.

At least 1,739,606 early votes were cast in Pennsylvania, including 971,615 by Democrats and 571,725 ​​by Democrats, according to data from the University of Florida's Election Lab.

Wisconsin

The Badger State lacks voter registration information for its early voting.

Still, the Trump campaign estimates that early voting and absentee voting are down 23% since 2020 and that absentee ballot requests are down 52% compared to 2020.

At least 1,338,728 early votes were cast in Wisconsin, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab. More than 4.7 million voters are registered there.

A total of about 76 million early votes were cast nationwide, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab. For comparison: In the 2020 election, a total of 252 million people took part in the election.

In the 2020 election cycle, early voting generally favored Democrats, while in-person voting generally favored Republicans. Former President Donald Trump has long railed against early voting.

This time, Trump, 78, and Republicans in general have encouraged their voters to vote early to narrow the gap with Democrats.

There is no guarantee that the in-person voter dichotomy in the 2020 election cycle will hold in 2024. The 2020 election dynamics were distorted by the respiratory virus COVID-19.