The Twins' loss to the Marlins puts the season on the brink as the lack of “execution” from the hitters became apparent

MINNEAPOLIS – Even returning home for a series against the last-place Miami Marlins, with usually reliable veteran starter Bailey Ober on Tuesday night, couldn't stop the Minnesota Twins' collapse.

Ober allowed four runs in the second inning to dampen any remaining enthusiasm in the sparse Target Field crowd. And the Twins' lineup barely stood up to the National League's second-worst pitching team in a 4-1 loss, scoring four runs or fewer for the 21st time in 25 games. It was only the second time in 27 games that the Marlins allowed fewer than three runs.

A real home run from Jonah 💥#MarlinsBeisbol pic.twitter.com/R2BidEOL2c

– Miami Marlins (@Marlins) September 24, 2024

“Execution” was the sticking point after the game for manager Rocco Baldelli, who repeatedly said the Twins lacked approach at the plate and the ability to follow the coaching staff's game plans.

“I think we do a pretty good job of preparing the guys and sending them into the game with the right idea,” Baldelli said. “You have to know what you want to achieve. It's not just about hitting the ball. It's much more than that. We have some of our people who do a really good job of putting a plan in play and executing it. That’s what matters in a lot of things.”

During that six-week nosedive, the Twins' lineup ranked 27th out of 30 teams in walk rate, 28th in OPS and 27th in runs per game.

“Now it's about figuring out what we prepare before the game, synchronizing it in the game and getting the result of productive attacks,” Baldelli said. “Productive at-bats swing at good distances. Most of the time we didn't succeed. We actually just rocked. We just swung a lot of pitches that you can’t hit.”

Carlos Correa, who went 2-for-5 with a double on Tuesday and has a .429 on-base percentage in eight games since coming off the injured list last week, was even more explicit about the lineup's problems after the game.

“Some consider it poison, others consider it fuel,” Correa said. “The guys who use it as fuel are the ones who always come out on top, have a nice career and stay in the game for a long time. We have a lot of young people and a lot of people are trying to help them, but at the end of the day everyone has to figure it out for themselves.”

Correa predictably avoided pointing out any particular player's problems, but several of the Twins' most prominent young hitters have posted sub-.600 OPS since mid-August, including Jose Miranda (.512), Royce Lewis (.539) and Edouard Julien (.593). ). That trio combined for 71 strikeouts and 13 walks during that span, totaling just two home runs and six double plays.

“There has to be a sense of urgency to show up early and start work and try to find something that can help us,” Correa said.

Did he feel this sense of urgency?

“Some people, yes,” Correa said. “Some of us took extra action (Tuesday) and tried to figure something out. We didn’t get the win, but we need to do more of it and find something right away at some point so we can go out and score more runs.”

Minnesota spent every day in playoff position from May 3 through August 17, when the Twins posted a 70-53 record with postseason odds above 95 percent. Since then, the Twins are 11-23 (.324) and are playing at a 110-loss pace through six weeks. Their window to salvage this season by stumbling into October as a wild card team is fast approaching.

Tuesday's loss, combined with wins by the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, leaves the Twins two games shy of the No. 2 and No. 3 wild-card spots and five games left to play. They hold the lead over both teams head-to-head, which has served as a safety net of sorts during this slide, but the Twins have been so bad for so long that that may no longer matter.

Realistically, the Twins probably need to win at least four of the remaining five games. Ordinarily, that would be plausible for a home team facing the 99-loss Marlins and a playoff-bound Baltimore Orioles that may not have much at stake this weekend. However, the Twins haven't won four times in a five-game span since August 13-17, the day before this whole mess started.

Max Kepler's time with the Twins is probably over

We may have already seen the end of Max Kepler's career with the Twins, which began in 2009 as a 16-year-old international from Germany and spanned 10 seasons in the majors.

Kepler has been out since Sept. 2 with patellar tendinopathy in his left knee as well as recent hip and groin problems and is not expected to return until the end of the regular season on Sunday afternoon. And the 31-year-old's availability as a free agent for a possible playoff appearance is also unlikely.

Kepler took live batting practice on Monday against Chris Paddack, who is also trying to recover from a midseason forearm strain. But while Paddack was somewhat optimistic Tuesday about potentially appearing in the bullpen last weekend, Kepler seemed more resigned to the fact that his season – and likely his Twins career – would be over unless there was a good playoff game. Run is coming.

“Given the very crucial games at the end of the season, I think we want to have guys on the field who have the necessary health and can give everything,” said Kepler. “I would say as opposed to a horse that's a bit banged up and maybe not in top form right from the start. I think we have guys on the team who have all the skills and also the health, which is very important right now.”

Sweet pregame interview moment when Max Kepler told Jorge Polanco how much it means to get to the playoffs with him after more than a decade together in the Twins organization.

They were roommates after signing with the Twins as 16-year-olds in the 2009 international class. pic.twitter.com/qVWw7Wqyho

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) October 8, 2023

Kepler was struggling months before going to IL, hitting .235/.276/.323 with four home runs in 70 games since late May, and fellow left-handed hitting outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach have outperformed him. However, Larnach is also not a healthy “horse,” to use Kepler’s analogy, as he is struggling with toe and hamstring injuries. Wallner left Tuesday's game with an oblique injury.

“I want to feel great (before I come back),” Kepler said. “I think the hip is the source of all problems. In my opinion everything is somehow overcompensated. Once one thing is gone, the rest of the body slowly decays after a while.”

Kepler received multiple cortisone injections and noted he hasn't ruled out offseason surgery, which would be unfortunate timing before his first free agent. Kepler is making $10 million in the final year of a contract extension signed in 2019, but his market may be limited after he batted just .253/.302/.380 with eight home runs and a career-worst 90 OPS+ in 105 games.

“They opened the door for me and I have a lot to thank them for,” Kepler said. “I could have turned it off completely and said, 'Hey, let's do what's necessary here to move forward and protect my health.' I thought cortisone shots would help, just to see if I could push my abilities further, but at the moment I honestly think the guys in the squad have a better chance than me.”

In addition to the 26-year-old Wallner and the 27-year-old Larnach, the Twins have 21-year-old top-50 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez, another left-handed outfielder who finished the season at Triple-A St. Paul. All of this makes it highly unlikely that they re-sign Kepler, who ranks 12th in home runs (161) and 16th in games played (1,072) in Twins history.

“It's not the way I want to go out as a twin, but then again, it happens,” Kepler said. “I am proud of what I have accomplished as an individual, as a teammate and as a friend to everyone in this clubhouse. Of course I want to go one step further, but when I look at the 15 years of my life, half of my life as a twin, I don't think I could have achieved much more as a child from Berlin.”

(Photo by Bailey Ober: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)