Third parties could deprive Trump or Harris of enough votes to influence the election | US elections 2024

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump battle for the presidency, there is another factor that could decide the election: the impact of third-party votes.

With the race expected to be extremely close, experts say ballots for the Green Party's Jill Stein, Cornel West or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could potentially siphon enough votes away from Harris or Trump to make a difference – a worrisome one Development for both Democrats and Republicans.

Particularly in the swing state of Michigan, discontent over Harris' stance on Israel's war on Gaza has driven some voters critical of Israel to stonewall them. In Michigan and Wisconsin, discontent over Trump's role at the helm of the Republican Party could lead to protest votes for Kennedy (even though he dropped out of the race earlier this year). Given Joe Biden's narrow margin of victory over Trump in key states in 2020, any ballots cast elsewhere could be crucial.

“The vote is so close right now that a small change in one direction or the other could swing it,” said Bernard Tamas, a professor of political science at Valdosta State University and author of “The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties: Poised.” . for political revival?.

The third-party candidates most positioned to win votes appear to be Stein and Kennedy, who, ironically, would prefer not to vote at all. Kennedy suspended his independent presidential campaign in August and endorsed Trump, but courts in Michigan and Wisconsin ruled that his name will remain on the ballot.

“I wonder if with RFK we'll experience a little bit of what I might call the 'Nikki Haley effect,'” Tamas said.

“Nikki Haley dropped out of the primary and still won a significant percentage of the Republican vote. If you take the many Republicans who are dissatisfied with Trump as a candidate and don't want to vote for Harris, they could end up voting for RFK knowing full well he's not even on the ballot. Basically just in protest.”

Biden won Wisconsin by just 20,000 votes in 2020 and was ahead of Michigan by about 150,000 votes, meaning a small drop of support from Harris or Trump could have an impact. In Michigan, certain circumstances appear to have played into Stein's hands, as the state's large Arab-American and Muslim-American populations are unhappy with Harris' stance on Gaza. These communities have historically leaned toward Democratic candidates, but there is evidence that they are divided over how to vote.

Stein, whose campaign has benefited from hundreds of thousands of dollars in spending by pro-Republican groups, has been a vocal critic of Israel and the Biden administration and has courted Muslim voters. She received an enthusiastic reception earlier this year at ArabCon, the annual meeting of the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, and was endorsed by the American Arab and Muslim Political Action Committee and the Abandon Harris group.

“Michigan’s margin was so small in the last election,” said Nura Sediqe, an assistant professor of American politics at Michigan State University.

“(Stein) could take away votes from the Democratic Party, particularly among young people ages 18 to 40 and from certain ethnic groups who vote – Arab Americans and American Muslims – those specific subgroups have been talked about a lot.” Voters about the voting of third parties, so that they may be deprived of their votes. These are all people who are more likely to be Democratic voters who could end up switching.”

Polls on this topic have produced inconsistent results. Last week, a national poll of Arab Americans conducted by the Arab News Research and Studies Unit found that 43% support Trump, compared to 41% for Harris and 4% for Stein.

A poll of Muslim Americans by the Council on American-Islamic Relations of American Muslims found that 42.3% plan to vote for Stein, 41% for Harris and 9.8% for Trump.

Stein's growing appeal has led to very different reactions from her opponents.

“Jill Stein, I like her a lot,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Philadelphia earlier this year. “Do you know why? She takes 100% from (Democrats).”

It appears Democrats agree. The Democratic National Committee on Monday announced a series of ads to run on Instagram and YouTube aimed at discouraging people from voting for Stein and West, who have also been critical of Israel.

The ads include Trump's comments about liking Stein “a lot,” and Trump also praises West, while the pro-Democrat organization MoveOn this week announced a “seven-figure” ad campaign that it said was designed to appeal to people who don't already like it Decision on a candidate and “foreign curious voters”.

According to Sediqe, there are 242,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, 145,000 of whom voted in 2020. About two-thirds of all Muslims nationally voted for Biden this year, a big boost for the Democrat.

“Muslims are divided. They don't all vote third parties, but let's imagine that there is a third party: Then you have up to 50,000 votes that traditionally went to the defecting Democrats. So if the margin is as narrow as last time, that could have an impact on the Democratic Party,” Sediqe said.

Democrats in Michigan and elsewhere are scrambling to spread their message that a vote for a third-party candidate is a vote for Trump. But Sediqe fears that this could lead to certain groups of voters being scapegoated if Harris loses the election.

“These people who are concerned about third parties should keep in mind that they are trying to send political signals to Democrats so that their vote is not taken for granted,” she said.

“The reality is they are very strategic voters: 'I want something.' Will you give it to me? No, okay, then I'll move my vote somewhere else.' It's a rational decision they make. And so I think my only concern is the idea that it's irrational. It’s very rational.”