Tim Walz's Midwestern charm empowers Harris – can he help sell her economic vision? | US elections 2024

Tim Walz has enjoyed a meteoric rise to the national political stage, rising from state governor to Democratic vice president, boosting Kamala Harris's presidential chances, strengthening the party's base and, along the way, repopularizing the term “weird.”

On Tuesday night, Minnesota's avuncular governor faces his next challenge: taking on Ohio Senator JD Vance in a highly anticipated debate in New York. Both men have long sold their experiences growing up in rural Midwestern towns as proof that they represent middle America, and both were recruited in November to boost their parties' chances.

Because Harris and Trump come from large coastal cities, Tuesday's debate will be about which of the small-town vice presidential candidates can best appeal to the kind of blue-collar workers who could win the election in November.

So far, Walz seems to be doing the most convincing job. The 60-year-old is more popular with the American public than Harris, Trump or Vance and has received a rousing reception on the campaign trail, where his rallies and events demonstrate his ability to act like a normal person. Vance, on the other hand, can seem stiff and awkward and has managed to anger large swaths of the American public by criticizing immigrants and women without children.

“Selecting Tim Walz as the vice presidential candidate was intended to help Kamala Harris reach voters in the Midwest — and particularly white voters in the Midwest. He’s the type of Midwesterner that people can relate to,” said Emmitt Riley, a professor of politics and African American studies at Sewanee University and chair of the National Conference of Black Political Scientists.

“I think Tim Walz did what he had to do because when we think about Kamala Harris' popularity, it's gone up, I think the poll numbers are shifting – she's not ahead of Donald Trump when it comes to economic issues, but voters are now excited by her economic message. So I think he has managed to gain the support he needs.”

An event at a high school in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, in late September showed just how attractive Walz was. The former school teacher wore a blue open-collar shirt and a gray suit and listened to the song “Small Town” by John Mellencamp. There's nothing disingenuous about his choice of music: Walz was born and raised in Valentine, Nebraska, a town of about 2,500 people, a point he's made on the campaign trail.

Walz then joked about Pennsylvania's NFL teams being more successful than the Minnesota Vikings. Walz continued to link the history of Minnesota, where he has been governor since 2019, to Pennsylvania, which has struggled with unemployment as its steel industry collapsed in the 1980s.

“Northern Minnesota has some of the richest iron mining reserves in the world. This iron from the northern Minnesota Iron Mountains supplied the steel mills here, right in the Lehigh Valley. “Together, it was our people who built the tanks that won World War II and freed the world from Nazi oppression,” Walz said.

“We forged the bridges, we built the highways, we built the skyscrapers and we are ready to continue shaping the future together.”

It was a speech that told the people of Pennsylvania – a key swing state – that Walz was one of them, someone who understood the concerns of working people. Walz is certainly not afraid to embrace his rural Midwestern origins.

“I had 24 kids in my graduating class. Twelve were cousins,” Walz told the crowd to laughter.

“But what you learn is your communities, your family, you care about each other. You pay attention to them, you lift them up. Kamala Harris does that. We didn’t grow up in the same place, but we grew up with the same people.”

The difference between Walz and Vance is clear in the Midwest: A New York Times/Siena College poll found Walz has a +3% favorable rating in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, while Vance's rating was -6%. Given the closeness of the 2020 elections in Michigan and Wisconsin – Joe Biden won Michigan by about 150,000 votes and Wisconsin by just 20,000 votes – if Walz's popularity can convince even a small percentage of Midwesterners to vote Democratic, then he will his choice was worth it.

“I think if you look at Tim Walz's popularity compared to JD Vance's popularity, he's more likeable than JD Vance, he seems more likeable than JD Vance, and those are all positives for the Harris campaign,” Riley said.

But even though Walz won the popularity contest, he will have to sell Tuesday what a Harris administration would do for Americans. The economy has emerged as a key issue for voters, and for months Trump has been seen – first compared to Joe Biden and later compared to Harris – as someone who would be better suited to America's financial woes.

However, in the past 10 days, two polls showed Harris and Trump essentially neck and neck when it comes to who would handle the economy better. Democratic supporters want Walz to build on those green shoots during the debate and lay out how a Harris administration would continue to fight inflation and improve the cost of living.

“What Walz needs to do tomorrow is to really let the American people know that he identifies with their struggles regarding inflation, but at the same time connect Trump policies to why Americans are experiencing such high inflation Riley said.

“(Harris and Walz) have not discussed Trump’s tax policy. They didn't talk about Trump's policies on tariffs and, moreover, his mismanagement of the global pandemic. I think when voters think about it, they'll realize that Donald Trump isn't really going to be better for Americans economically.”

Vance, who grew up in Middletown, Ohio, before studying at Yale and joining a California-based venture capital firm, is likely to attack Walz as an out-of-touch elite, even though there is evidence that Walz is a fairly normal person, capable of doing so , doing normal things — something Democrats hope comes across on the debate stage.

In recent days, however, Walz's team tried to temper expectations by saying he was nervous and thought he was a bad debater. Walz told reporters that his preparation was “going great” when he stopped by a pumpkin farm in Harbor Springs, Michigan, on Sunday – where he seemed more comfortable inspecting pumpkins in a baseball cap and jacket than speaking on stage on Tuesday would.

“He’s a strong person,” Minnesota Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar told CNN this week.

“He’s just not a lawyer-debating type. It’s not like he dreamed of debate in first grade.”

Historically, this debate might not have mattered. Vice presidential candidates are traditionally considered relatively unimportant – the debates are “often a sideshow that has little impact on the outcome of the election,” said Robert Rowland, a professor of communications at the University of Kansas.

But since the election is expected to be extremely close, even the smallest appearance could have an impact on the race.

“Vance fulfills a role often played by vice presidential candidates — the attack dog who carries Donald Trump’s nationalist-populist message,” Rowland said. “The focus of his campaign was activating core Trump supporters.”

“In contrast, Governor Walz was perhaps the most effective spokesperson for the Kamala Harris campaign’s message – that Trump, Vance and other MAGA Republicans are strange.”

On Tuesday, both men will be introduced to the United States as Americans seek to decide the country's future.