TIME for children | Forecasts with AI

On October 9, Hurricane Milton became the fifth hurricane to hit the US mainland in 2024. Such storms are becoming more frequent and violent. That's why meteorologists work hard to predict and track them (see “Safety First”). Artificial intelligence plays an important role in this.

SEEKING SAFETY Thousands of people were ordered to evacuate Florida's west coast before Hurricane Milton struck.

JOE RAEDLE – GETTY IMAGES

AI benefits

Meteorologists have been creating digital models of storms for years. They use data collected by aircraft, satellites and buoys. It can take hours for these models to produce updated forecasts.

Swirling Clouds Hurricanes are large enough to be seen from space.

NASA/GETTY IMAGES

But AI models use huge amounts of data from previous storms to recognize patterns. You'll find trends that most people can't spot. And very quickly. This year, AI models have made accurate storm-related predictions within seconds and days in advance.

Be prepared: A Tampa, Florida resident is helping build a flood barrier ahead of Hurricane Milton.

SPENCER PLATT – GETTY IMAGES

Matt Lanza is a meteorologist. He lives in Houston, Texas. The week before Hurricane Milton made landfall, Lanza's older models predicted exactly where in Florida the storm would hit. But AI models “probably picked up on that.” potential

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“Result a good 12 to 18 hours beforehand,” he says. These hours can make a big difference for people preparing for the effects of a storm.

The AI ​​program GraphCast predicted that Hurricane Beryl would hit Texas on July 8th. A traditional model predicted it would hit Mexico. GraphCast was right. The team behind it won an engineering award. One of the judges called GraphCast “a revolutionary

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In September, the AI ​​program AIFS predicted the path of Hurricane Francine when the storm hit Louisiana. His accuracy gave Lanza the confidence to tell his Texas viewers that the storm likely wouldn't be a problem for them. “The consistency was unbelievable,” says Lanza.

WEATHER UPDATE President Biden attends a White House briefing on Hurricane Milton on October 9th.

ANNA MONEYMAKER – GETTY IMAGES

Room to grow

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses AI for its forecasts. “The sophistication of AI has improved dramatically and continues to improve,” Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the NHC, told NBC Miami.

Despite the success of the technology, there are still problems. Lanza says AI models have difficulty predicting the intensity of a storm and the amount of precipitation. That’s why it’s important for meteorologists to use AI alongside other forecasting tools. “We don't hand over the reins to these things and just say, 'Give me a forecast,'” he says.

Safety comes first

Courtesy of Ashley Ruiz

Meteorologists are scientists who study the Earth's atmosphere and weather patterns to make predictions. They can warn people about severe weather events.

Ashley Ruiz (above) is a meteorologist. She works in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. In 2022, Ruiz told TFK Kid reporter Cash Daniels that one of her favorite things about her job is “going out into the community.” . . . Meeting the families who saw the weather forecast and were able to get to safety: it’s amazing to know that I helped make this happen.”