Tropical development as hurricane season comes to an end

The National Hurricane Center officially designated a widespread area of ​​low pressure in the western Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC18) on Sunday afternoon.

(​MORE: What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?)

The storm is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm late Sunday evening or early Monday morning, moving through the western Caribbean and continuing to strengthen through the first half of the week. By Wednesday, it could potentially reach hurricane strength as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico.

The next Atlantic storm is called Rafael.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within the monitoring area in approximately 48 hours.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected in the region over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Here's what the PTC 18 could pursue next: The NHC says the broad Caribbean low pressure area will slowly drift northwestward over the next few days, resulting in heavy rainfall in adjacent land areas in the western Caribbean.

It is possible that this system will move into the Gulf of Mexico sometime in the middle to late week, but there is no guarantee that it will have a significant impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast. That's because wind shear, dry air and cooling Gulf waters could be hostile factors to its ability to stay organized or even intact as it moves further north.

However, residents should monitor the situation over the next few days until the forecast becomes clearer.

The third and final system observed by the NHC is in the North Atlantic. The system developed into Subtropical Storm Patty early Saturday and will bring gusty conditions to the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula early in the week.

The Caribbean is a typical location for late-season storm formation. As we enter the final month of hurricane season, the likelihood of a tropical storm forming decreases.

(​MORE: What you should know about the final stages of hurricane season)

Historically, the area highlighted in yellow below, stretching from the western Caribbean to the Bahamas, as well as a separate area in the central Atlantic, had the most named storm formations in November.

On average, a storm occurs every one to two years in the last month of the hurricane season. In the last 10 years, the last storm of the season fizzled out on October 28th and as late as December 7th.

Last year there were no storms in November.

But 2022 was exactly the opposite: Martin and Nicole developed into November hurricanes. Lisa also strengthened into a hurricane during the month after strengthening into a tropical storm on October 31.

N​icole ultimately hit Florida's Atlantic coast as a Category 1, making it only the fourth November hurricane to make landfall on the American mainland since the mid-19th century.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years, having started his career at The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.