Tropical storm expected in the Gulf of Mexico next week

The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast the development of a tropical disturbance that could move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and develop into a tropical depression.

However, the disorder has not yet formed.

The hurricane center expects this to happen early next week. The storm could move north from the western Caribbean into the southern Gulf.

Meteorologists expect the storm to encounter an environment in the Gulf where it can organize and could develop into a tropical depression by the end of next week.

Any time a tropical disturbance occurs in the Gulf at the height of hurricane season, it is a cause for concern.

Meteorologists point out, however, that it is still too early to estimate the possible consequences of the disturbance, which has not yet occurred.

And it is still too early to know where the journey might lead.

Nevertheless, the National Weather Service in Mobile warned residents and visitors to Alabama's Gulf Coast to pay particular attention to the weather forecast for the coming week.

It's also a good time to review your hurricane plan and supplies as a precaution.

If the system organizes and gets a name, it will likely be Helene, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic storm list.

The National Weather Service in Mobile was monitoring forecast trends Saturday, and meteorologists said it would be several more days before the system was developed enough to have a “trackable feature that will help us narrow down the wide range of possibilities.”

The weather service expects that a low-pressure system may form in the western Caribbean around Tuesday. It will move over the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche.

From there, there could be favorable conditions (warm water, low wind shear) for its organization and strengthening. Meteorologists added that models suggest that any forms could be of a rather large-scale nature, which has the potential to spread the effects of wind and rain further from the center.

There are also numerous uncertainties. The biggest uncertainty is that the disruption has not even occurred yet.

“Once the system actually forms and the models are able to capture a trackable feature, we should see the forecast models begin to converge on a most likely solution,” the weather service said in its forecast discussion Saturday morning.

There are also many questions about the so-called steering characteristics that could affect the final path of the system. A ridge of high pressure will form over parts of the South. A low pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes region, and a low pressure system will be cut off from this low pressure system and linger over the Mid-Southern United States.

All of these factors could ultimately influence where the tropical disturbance tracks. The strength and location of these features will become clearer next week.

The weather service added a warning:

“It is important not to focus on the exact location of the center, as impacts will likely be felt far from the center of the system,” meteorologists said Saturday. “We will continue to closely monitor trends and urge residents and visitors across the Gulf Coast to continue monitoring the weather forecast in the coming days.”

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC

The National Hurricane Center also monitored three other areas for possible developments on Saturday.

All three were located in the central and eastern Atlantic, far from the United States, and all three had a low chance of developing into tropical depressions in the next week.

The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks around September 10, but officially ends on November 30.