Tropical storm in the Gulf is likely – threat to Florida

A tropical storm is expected to form in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico and move toward either Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week, but details about its potential intensity, track, and timing are still uncertain.

Stakeholders along the entire U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to closely monitor the situation and stay informed as the forecast evolves in the coming days.

The area to be observed: In the next few days, a low pressure system is expected to form over the western Caribbean, bringing with it increasingly stormy weather. We have already observed an increase in thunderstorm activity over Central America and the western Caribbean in recent days.

The National Hurricane Center has identified an area in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico where a tropical storm is likely to form.

Here's when a storm might form and where it might go:

– Tuesday: The latest computer forecast models indicate that a tropical depression or storm could form as early as Tuesday if it is near Cancun or western Cuba. Locally heavy rains are possible in these areas. The next storm name is Helene.

– Thursday: We expect the storm to move generally northward in the Gulf of Mexico, steering winds around the high pressure system off the southeast coast and the low pressure system over the mid-south U.S. As usual, forecast models differ this far out. But in general, the center of this system could make it to the Gulf Coast somewhere between Florida and Louisiana on Thursday or Thursday night.

-​ Friday: This system would then either continue inland over the southeast or could scour the southeast coast.

Could it be a hurricane? This is certainly possible. Ocean heat content is a favorable factor for intensification, and the map below shows that there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

But there are other factors that come into play, such as whether the wind pattern aloft favors significant intensification. It is also not known whether dry air nearby could hinder intensification.

Stakeholders along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the situation closely while ensuring hurricane preparedness plans are in place. Visit us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates throughout the weekend and beyond as we provide more details on what to expect.