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Tropical Storm Rafael forms in the Caribbean Sea

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Tropical Storm Rafael forms in the Caribbean Sea

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Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday, a storm that is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend and threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said.

However, given the significant uncertainties surrounding long-term forecast direction and intensity, it is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, could occur in the U.S., the hurricane center said.

“There has never been a tropical storm or hurricane in Texas, Louisiana or Mississippi in November and December. “So that would be quite a milestone, but that doesn't mean people along the central and western Gulf Coast should let their guard down,” Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather, said.

According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. On average, there are 14 storms per year.

Jamaica, Cuba to see first effects

As of Monday afternoon, Rafael was about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph, with higher gusts.

“Moving northwest is expected later today and is expected to continue over the next few days,” the hurricane center said in a statement Monday. According to the NHC, the system is expected to move near Jamaica on Monday evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Meteorologists said Monday that “the system could be near or at hurricane intensity as it passes the Cayman Islands and Cuba.”

The NHC said tropical storm conditions were expected in Jamaica through Monday evening and that hurricane conditions were possible in the Cayman Islands through Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect areas of the western Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur over Jamaica and parts of Cuba by midweek.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches – up to 9 inches in some places – are expected, and flooding and mudslides could occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba, the NHC said.

In three or four days, as the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air and slightly cooler water are expected to end the strengthening trend and lead to weakening, forecasters said.

Hurricane season continues: Rafael could threaten the US later this week

Patty is no longer a tropical cyclone

The hurricane center said Monday that Patty is no longer a tropical storm or cyclone in the Far Eastern Atlantic.

“The remnants of Patty will rotate toward the east-northeast throughout the day,” the hurricane center said. “Heavy rainfall is possible across parts of Portugal and western Spain from the remnants of Patty between tonight and Tuesday.”

Atlantic Storm Tracker

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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