UFC 307 Predictions: Will Alex Pereira's KO Streak Continue?

It's that time again, folks. The UFC is back in Salt Lake City for UFC 307 and another Alex Pereira light heavyweight title defense is on the horizon.

Saturday's high-altitude MMA showcase looked like a strange pay-per-view seen on UFC programming a few months ago. Big fights and logical rankings seemed to preclude UFC 307 from the availability of other champions, and the timing didn't suit the more flexible main event stars. Of course, it was assumed that the Brazilian Pereira would not be able to save the victory again in a short time.

Incorrect. That's all “Poatan” has done in 2024.

Pereira's first two defenses, knockouts of Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka, came with shorter camps than typically seen for a champion. However, Pereira has proven that he is not a regular titleholder and he will look to continue to prove that by knocking out Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307.

The Salt Lake City faithful will also be in for another title shot as women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington co-stars in the first defense. Rocky's Rocky story climaxed with gold in January, 10 years after its appearance on the US television series The Ultimate Fighter 18. This victory made her one of three fighters in history to achieve championship status after a decade in the Octagon.

Pennington's opponent is former champion Julianna Peña, who also entered the UFC through her The Ultimate Fighter 18, what she actually won. After a 798-day hiatus, The Venezuelan Vixen is back.

These are just the two top fights that conclude the evening. Let's take a closer look at the title's tilts along with the rest of the main card and make a few picks, shall we?

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Alex Pereira (11-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5, 1 NC)

For his third light heavyweight title defense, 37-year-old champion Pereira is rightly favored as the -450 favorite, the second-largest on the card.

Let's put it straight: There are challengers in both title fights at UFC 307 who shouldn't be next in line. If meritocracy has to die in order to have fun, then so be it, says the UFC. Enter #7 contender and “GLORY Kickboxing Killer” Roundtree.

The 34-year-old Rountree is undeniably in the prime of his 10-year professional career and is on a five-fight winning streak. Of those five, Rountree has defeated four of his opponents by strike, including former title challenger Anthony Smith in his most recent win last December.

I mentioned the funny little nickname “GLORY Killer” for Rountree, which comes from his defeating former kickboxing standouts Dustin Jacoby and Gokhan Saki, the latter of which was a stunning upset in 2018. As a +340 underdog, Rountree hopes to repeat the same epic performance against another former GLORY champion with his vicious kicks and elbows.

This will be nothing new for Pereira. The champion has seen it all in the striking department, with his biggest hurdles coming against his long-time rival, former middleweight king Israel Adesanya. Aside from his loss to Adesanya, Pereira has had minimal issues in kickboxing-themed MMA matters. It would be wise for Rountree to try to exploit the weaker area of ​​Pereira's game – the champion's grappling – but he has already stated in interviews that he will not go down that route. Even if these are all just mind games, Pereira has continued to improve his takedown defense and overall ground skills to the point where Rountree isn't much of a threat there.

But Pereira can get hit, and with a force like Rountree's, that could cause problems. It's just a matter of finding your shot first, and that's the problem. Pereira's timing and counters are virtually unmatched in the heavier weight classes, and oh, he has one of, if not the best equalizer in MMA history with that nuclear left hook. The man can hurt people's feet anywhere, and he'll be at his best here, especially if Rountree doesn't even throw in a wrestling threat.

It could be something crazy like Thiago Santos vs. Jimi Manuwa for as long as it lasts, but ultimately we'll hear Bruce Buffer proclaim, “And yet.”

Selection: Pereira

Raquel Pennington (16-8) vs. Julianna Pena (11-5)

The purist in me struggles so much at the sight of these title fights.

Don't be fooled. Peña's return two days shy of her 800-day absence comes after one of the most lopsided title defeats in MMA history with her rematch against Amanda Nunes. Injuries extended their time out and ended the actual Nunes trilogy in June 2023. It was the best thing for them and us.

Nonetheless, Peña is back in the title scene to try to dethrone Pennington and join the select few female fighters to become a two-time UFC champion.

What Pennington lacks in finishing ability, she makes up for technically with her tight boxing and underrated clinch work. It's not flashy but it's effective and gets the job done, whereas Peña is wild, chaotic and the exact opposite in the stand-up department. Nunes took advantage of the latter with three defeats in the Peña rematch.

Peña's X factor against everyone is her tenacity, aggression and relentless pursuit of kills. But another area where Pennington is underrated is her strong defense. She may forego takedowns – she has allowed nine to her opponents in this current six-fight winning streak – but she knows how to avoid being oppressed or put in compromising positions. In all but two of those fights, Pennington beat her opponents in control time, and in one of the two she failed to do so, the final result was a guillotine submission victory over Macy Chiasson.

As long-lived and grim as they may be, Pennington only finished twice in her career. Peña will hope to take out the champion and regain her title if it doesn't come to fruition. That will make the fight a close contest to see who is more effective with their damage, and Pennington should pull away in her first title defense.

Selection: Pennington

Jose Aldo (32-8) vs. Mario Bautista (14-2)

Jose Aldo makes no sense and I absolutely love it.

The legendary former featherweight world champion returned to MMA in May in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Against Jonathan Martinez at UFC 301, the 38-year-old Aldo put on as brilliant a performance as any fans remembered.

Aldo remained at bantamweight and was sharp, fast and brutal in his victory over Martinez. Aldo's bizarre inability to age should probably be studied scientifically, and Mario Bautista will have to find a way to overcome the Brazilian's incredible counter speed and unparalleled takedown defense.

If any rising contender at 135 pounds can take on Aldo right now, it's Bautista, who is the slight favorite at -140 to Aldo's +115. The 31-year-old Bautista was on a roll, winning six straight times with mixed submissions between decisions.

This duel is another example of how the veterans' superior experience and know-how make the difference. Overall, expect it to look like Aldo vs. Martinez, minus the tight end at the end. Another “King of Rio” dissection is coming.

Selection: Aldo

Ketlen Vieira (14-3) vs. Kayla Harrison (17-1)

Kayla Harrison was scheduled to challenge Pennington for the title and Pena was scheduled to return against Ketlen Vieira. It all makes too much sense, but instead here we are.

Harrison, 34, may have delivered more than expected in her highly anticipated promotional debut at UFC 300 in April. The two-time Olympic judoka champion dominated former UFC bantamweight champion Holly Holm from post to post before securing a rear-naked choke in the second round. Things couldn't have gone much better for the former PFL champion.

The 33-year-old Vieira challenges Harrison with probably the second-best judo skills in the division behind herself. Vieira, who is a black belt in this regard, doesn't show off her martial arts skills as often as Harrison, but when she does, it's usually effective.

Harrison's punching power has continued to improve from fight to fight, and we saw that against Holm. Vieira has some clever setups and has been more patient in pulling off combinations since her knockout loss to Irene Aldana in 2019 – a fight she won down to the last punch. Vieira's path to success will be to use her judo defensively and negate Harrison's game so they can trade punches.

However, that's easier said than done, especially against a judoka of Harrison's caliber. As talented as Vieira is, there are levels to this game, and that's why Harrison is the biggest betting favorite heading into UFC 307 at -1100 to Vieira's +700.

Selection: Harrison

Roman Dolidze (13-3) vs. Kevin Holland (26-11, 1 NC)

This fight is strange. After Kevin Holland lost his original opponent, Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze stepped up to save the day, just as he did against the aforementioned Smith at UFC 303 in June.

Stylistically, this should be a fairly comfortable win for Dolidze thanks to his superior grappling strengths, but his last three appearances in particular have left a lot to be desired.

Holland is a realistic submission threat and dangerous from below with punches, as evidenced by his win over Ronaldo Souza in 2020, but he will be outsized in this game as Dolidze drops back from his 205-pound side attack. Holland's activity and punching power are certainly what make him the -145 favorite in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Dolidze is a good player at +120, but he's hard to trust. It's a close fight but Dolidze is never finished and that's exactly what Holland will need.

Selection: Dolidze

Preliminary remarks

The entire preliminary portion of UFC 307 isn't too shabby. The last two fights, Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley and Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo, are the most intriguing. Retirement is also on the horizon for a historic former two-time champion as Carla Esparza returns for another walk after becoming a mother to take on her comrade The Ultimate Fighter 20 Alum Tecia Pennington. It's fun that Pennington and her wife Raquel get to compete on the same night. Violence can also be expected in the veteran duel Court McGee vs. Tim Means. Cheers to that, everyone.

Quick Tips:

• Stephen Thompson (+175) def. Joaquin Buckley (-210)

• Marina Rodriguez (+155) def. Iasmin Lucindo (-190)

• Cesar Almeida (-400) defeated. Ihor Potieria (+310)

• Ryan Spann (-250) def. Ovince Saint Preux (+200)

• Carla Esparza (+150) def. Tecia Torres (-185)

• Tim Means (-210) def. Court McGee (+165)

• Alexander Hernandez (-160) defeated. Austin Hubbard (+130)