Under Trump, a united Congress could push through tax and spending cuts

But it would also force them to confront the dilemma of pursuing a Trump policy plan that could undermine the party's long-stated goal of reining in the government's $35 trillion debt.

Republicans secured a 52-48 majority in the U.S. Senate and were on track to expand their slim majority in the House of Representatives, even though 51 of the 435 House races had not yet been called.

Top priorities, Republicans say, are expected to include extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts, funding the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, cutting unspent Democratic funding, abolishing the Education Department and limiting the powers of agencies , including Consumer Financial Protection Bureau lawmakers and aides.

“We stand ready to stand up for the American people,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said in an early morning social media post.

Trump has repeatedly shown during his four years out of power that he is capable of steering the party's agenda — most notably by telling lawmakers earlier this year to scrap a bipartisan immigration bill. Once he returns to the Oval Office, his influence within the caucus will only increase.

No. 2 Republican House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Reuters that lawmakers had been working with Trump for months to ensure they could hit the ground running with “a really aggressive, bold, conservative first 100-day agenda.”

He said their goal is to restore the economic growth seen at the start of Trump's first term, before the COVID-19 pandemic erupted in 2020 and plunged the economy into a steep downturn.

Republicans point to strong increases in federal tax revenue since 2017 as evidence that Trump's tax cuts have increased revenue and say his current agenda will bring even more of the same.

“History has shown that when you reduce the overall tax burden on families, not only do their salaries go up, but the amount of money flowing into the federal government actually goes up,” Scalise said. “As long as you control spending, that economic growth will actually give you more money to help pay the deficit.”

However, the increase in revenue they cite is based on nominal revenue attributable to inflation and an expanding economy. When the size of the economy is taken into account, this results in a decline.

“The Trump tax cuts have actually reduced tax revenues, and what Republicans say is phenomenal growth in tax revenues is not actually happening,” said Marc Goldwein, CRFB senior policy director.

LEGAL HURDLES

Even a more disciplined Republican majority will face obstacles, including the Senate rule known as the filibuster, which requires 60 of its 100 members to agree to pass most legislation, a threshold the new Senate cannot overcome with Republican votes alone.

A workaround known as “budget reconciliation” allows the Senate to pass budget matters with a simple majority. Republicans took advantage of this in the first two years of Trump's first term, as did Democrats in the first two years of President Joe Biden's term, when they had control of Congress.

Still, budget voting is a limited power. The measures adopted with this maneuver must at least have a plausible connection with income and expenditure.

In late 2021, the Senate parliamentarian rejected a Democratic proposal to use reconciliation to grant work permits to millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

If the 60-vote filibuster rule blocks a Trump priority next year, he could ask Senate leaders to abolish it, as he repeatedly pressured him to do early in his first term and as some Democrats urged early in Biden's term had.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell affirmed the filibuster against repeated Trump calls to abandon it during the president-elect's first term.

McConnell will now step down as leader. While the two leading candidates to replace him – John Thune and John Cornyn – have said the rule will remain in place, they and others who might seek the role have yet to face direct pressure from Trump.

And McConnell predicted Wednesday that the filibuster will remain.

“I think the filibuster is very safe,” the Kentucky Republican told reporters

Sign in Here.

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.opens new tab