Utah vs. Oklahoma State Prediction: Who will win and why?

The early Big 12 football season matchup features two undefeated, top-ranked conference contenders when No. 12 Utah makes its league debut on the road against No. 14 Oklahoma State in Week 4 of college football. Here's everything you need to know about the game, plus our updated prediction.

Cameron Rising is expected to return to the quarterback position for Utah after missing last week's game due to an injury to his throwing hand, giving the offense the boost it needs to remain a serious threat in the highly competitive Big 12 championship game.

Oklahoma State failed to live up to expectations despite the return of Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon, but the Cowboys made up for it with an aggressive passing attack led by veteran quarterback Alan Bowman.

OSU held off an Arkansas team looking to pull off an upset two weeks ago and is ranked 18th nationally with an average of nearly 43 points per game, while returning 21 of 22 starters from a squad that has played in two of the last three Big 12 title games.

Utah is making its Big 12 debut in this game after recently winning two straight Pac-12 championships and is neck and neck with the Pokes in the early race for that division's crown and automatic qualification for the expanded College Football Playoff round.

The winner of this game will have taken a huge step closer to that goal, while the loser would be a very significant step back. Let's predict Utah's clash with Oklahoma State this weekend.

Rising, 25, is expected to return after being absent last week and hopes to get back into the swing of things after missing all of last season with a knee injury. He started off quite well this season, throwing 5 touchdown passes in the Utes' win over Southern Utah to start the year.

And his presence on the field is directly tied to Utah's overall fortunes, as the team has a 19-5 record in games he has started and finished over the past three seasons.

However, he may have accuracy issues if he has to wear a glove on his throwing hand – he reportedly needed stitches in two fingers after colliding with a water cooler.

This could be a chance for the Cowboys to get some turnovers, but the front seven has trouble containing the mobile quarterbacks sufficiently. Keeping Rising in the pocket will be crucial to containing Utah's offensive rhythm.

Utah will want to run the ball early to control the line and take the pressure off Rising, and so far the running game has been successful, averaging 192 yards per game, good for 40th nationally.

Micah Bernard leads the offense with 274 total yards on 41 attempts and an average of 6.7 yards per attempt, but has only scored once and the Utes have only scored 2 touchdowns.

Utah ranks 105th nationally in third-down offense and has only converted 13 of 40 opportunities.

The Cowboys rank 93rd nationally in defense against the run, allowing 4.41 yards per carry. They rank 93rd in defense against third down, allowing their opponents to convert on 40 percent of their chances.

Six different receivers scored touchdowns for Utah, with tailback Dijon Stanley outperforming his peers with 155 yards from 5 catches.

Tight ends Brant Kuithe (3 TDs) and Caleb Lohner (2 TDs) are key targets, as is wide receiver Money Parks, who scored 2 points on 8 passes caught.

The Cowboys have plenty of experience on their veteran offensive line, which has returned as a strength of the team this season. While there have been some concerns about opening running lanes so far, the unit has done better at protecting rushers in passing situations.

But the team will have a tough time competing against Utah's top seven players, who have consistently applied pressure over the past few years and are ranked 15th nationally with 10 sacks this season.

All eyes are on Ollie Gordon getting going behind OSU's line. The tailback, who scored 21 times last year, has only rushed for 90 yards and is averaging 2.6 yards per carry in his last two games. Those numbers have led to the Cowboys ranking 105th in the FBS in yardage per game.

Gordon's limited production is due in part to opponents crowding the box to keep him in check. Utah actually has the bodies and discipline to play that type of game, starting with a strong interior formation that allows defenders more freedom to move in the midfield.

De'Zhaun Stribling is the Cowboys' best receiver, catching 17 passes for 295 yards and scoring 2 of the team's 8 touchdowns through the air. Brennan Presley averages less than 8 yards per catch, but has scored the most touchdowns on the team with 3 touchdowns from 23 catches.

Bowman is completing 67 percent of his passes, has 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He's facing a Utah secondary that has 11 pass breakups and 3 interceptions and ranks 25th in the FBS with just 144 passing yards per game.

Lines provided courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Utah: -1.5 (-108)
Oklahoma State: +1.5 (-112)

Over 53.5 points: -115
Below 53.5 points: -105

Gordon's early struggles running the ball are a concern, especially as he faces a strong Utah front seven that has the players needed to slow his advance early on.

But the Cowboys have the protection and experience at quarterback, so Bowman can keep the offense moving with a series of intermediate passes to some talented receivers.

College Football HQ's selection…

More … Result prediction for Utah vs. Oklahoma State by expert model

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:00 p.m. Central
TV: Fox Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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