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What are the swing states? View polls and past results from 7 key states

Posted on by Vanessa
What are the swing states? View polls and past results from 7 key states

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The nation's eyes are poised to turn to the seven swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election as the race reaches its final hours.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have stormed the states, making their final pitches before crucial voters that could put them in the White House.

Recent polls in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona show tight races on the ballot.

An unexpected potential reversal emerged Saturday when a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll showed Harris three points ahead of Trump in Iowa, although the result was within the poll's margin of error. The state was considered a safe state for Trump in the run-up to the election.

Here's what you need to know about the swing states as Election Day approaches.

Swing state polls, past election results

Here are some recent polls conducted in the battleground states, along with when they were conducted, sample size and margin of error, and the last two election results in each state.

Arizona

Past election results:

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 49% to 45.5%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 49.4% to 49.1%

Georgia

Past election results:

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump defeated Hillary Clinton 51% to 45.9%.
  • 2020 presidential election results: Joe Biden beat Trump 49.5% to 49.3%

Michigan

Past election results:

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 47.6% to 47.4%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 50.6% to 47.8%

Nevada

Past election results:

  • 2016 presidential election results: Clinton beat Trump 47.9% to 45.5%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 50.1% to 47.7%

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North Carolina

Past election results:

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 50.5% to 46.8%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Trump defeated Biden 50.1% to 48.7%

Pennsylvania

Past election results:

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.9%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 50% to 48.8%

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Wisconsin

Past election results:

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 47.8% to 47%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 49.6% to 48.9%

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

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