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What does NOAA's winter outlook show for Iowa and the Midwest?

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What does NOAA's winter outlook show for Iowa and the Midwest?

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La Nina is slowly developing but is expected to continue to impact winter conditions across the United States. NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook released by the Climate Prediction Center sheds light on what this means for residents of Iowa and the Midwest.

Large parts of the United States will experience a warmer-than-average winter, right?

NOAA said in its forecast that temperatures will be warmer than average south to the eastern Great Lakes.

Although October was unseasonably warm, Iowans should prepare for colder weather. From December to February there is an equal chance of temperatures being above normal or below normal. The normal daily high temperature in Des Moines is around 36 degrees in December, 31 degrees in January and 36 degrees in February.

NOAA says a small portion of northwest Iowa is more likely to experience below-average temperatures.

How much snow will Iowa get this winter?

“A developing La Nina this winter is expected to impact upcoming winter patterns, particularly our precipitation forecasts,” said Jon Gottschalck, head of the Climate Prediction Center’s Operational Prediction Branch.

Like temperatures, there is equal variation in above-average and below-average precipitation across most of Iowa. A strip of northeast Iowa will experience above-average precipitation.

The Des Moines area typically receives 35.3 inches of snow each season, with about 25.4 inches falling between December and February.

NOAA says drought will continue across Iowa and the Great Plains

NOAA noted that extreme drought will continue across much of the Great Plains. Drought is expected to continue in most parts of Iowa. However, NOAA's drought map showed that parts of southern and southeastern Iowa may be drought-free.

“Unfortunately, after a brief period in spring 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the landmass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “And the outlook for winter precipitation does not bode well for widespread relief.”

Victoria Reyna-Rodriguez is a general assignment reporter at the Register. Contact her at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @VictoriaReynaR.

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