What impact will La Niña have?

The long-awaited La Niña is expected to arrive in time for winter, bringing wet-than-average conditions across the Great Lakes region and other parts of the northern United States.

The expected northerly direction of these storms will bring above-average temperatures for New York and the eastern Great Lakes, according to the U.S. winter outlook released Oct. 17 by NOAA.

When La Niña prevails, the Great Lakes region often experiences wetter than usual winter conditions. According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, there is a 60% chance of a weak and short-lasting La Niña occurring between September and November and lasting from January to March.

La Niña is the opposite phase of a single seasonal climate phenomenon, El Niño/Southern Oscillation, in the tropical Pacific. It is characterized by cooler than average surface water in the same region.

The three-month outlook provides an overview of the likelihood that temperature and precipitation levels will meet, exceed or fall below average, covering the months of December, January and February.

New winter forecast tools for NOAA

Along with the winter outlook, NOAA announced new forecasting tools for when things get cold and snowy later this year.

Tools include the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index, which represents possible real-world impacts of winter hazards on a scale from minor to extreme. The tool calculates the likely impacts on snow rate, snow load, snow quantity, ice formation and blowing snow.

As part of NOAA's Hazard Simplification Initiative, the Advisory, Warning, and Wind Chill Warning will become the Cold Weather Advisory, Extreme Cold Warning, and Extreme Cold Warning. Hard freeze monitoring and warning capabilities have recently been integrated into existing freeze monitoring and warning products.

— Steve Howe covers weather, climate and the Great Lakes for the Democrat and Chronicle. As an RIT graduate, he has covered countless topics over the years, including public safety, local government, national politics and economic development in New York and Utah.

New winter forecast tools for NOAA

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