What we hear about the Cubs at GM meetings: starting pitching, catching and more

SAN ANTONIO, Texas – Ten years ago, the Chicago Cubs used Major League Baseball general managers' meetings to lay the groundwork with Jon Lester and his representatives. These lengthy, high-risk negotiations ultimately resulted in a $155 million contract and the end of a 108-year World Series drought. Lester went down as one of the biggest free agent signings in Chicago sports history.

The Cubs have gotten back to the point where it's time to make a big investment in their rotation. The front office is crammed into the day-to-day lineup, so to speak, and doesn't believe in spending excessive amounts of money on replacement players. The top of the farm system consists of position players and light pitching prospects who have proven they can stay healthy. A front-line starter could help push past the 83-win mark in a playoff-or-bust year.

Cubs executives Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins further formulate those plans during this week's GM meetings at a JW Marriott resort in Texas. This very early read of the Cubs offseason is based on information from team and league sources.

Corbin Burnes seems out of reach

There is no track record or indication that the Hoyer Group and the Ricketts family will move to the top of the market for Corbin Burnes, a Scott Boras client who can dominate the long-term megadeal that typically involves an aggressive owner. Blake Snell is also represented by Boras, but the bigger hurdle for the Cubs may be his pitching profile. Snell is extremely talented and a two-time Cy Young Award winner, although his skill level, year-to-year variance and overall reliability will influence the club's evaluation.

Max Fried would tick several boxes as a consistent, left-handed All-Star pitcher who won a World Series with the Atlanta Braves. There are, of course, limits to the Cubs' pursuit of pitching. The club could pivot and use some trade chips or focus on the next level of free agents since the deals for Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga worked out well. But beyond Lester's example, it has been nearly seven years since Yu Darvish signed his $126 million contract with the Cubs. At this point, it wouldn't be unreasonable to sign a nine-figure deal for a pitcher.

Max Fried could be an option for the Cubs in free agency. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Catching remains a priority

Although Miguel Amaya has had a strong offensive finish to the season – posting a 124 wRC+ after a mechanical adjustment as of July 7 – the Cubs would prefer to at least pair him with a veteran catcher in a timeshare. Adding a clear front starter at this position just doesn't seem realistic. The Seattle Mariners will not trade Cal Raleigh at this time, and it is highly doubtful that the Los Angeles Angels would again pursue Logan O'Hoppe, a player the Cubs discussed at this year's trade deadline.

The Cubs could try to trade for a top catcher, but signing a free agent seems more likely. Travis d'Arnaud, whose $8 million option was not picked up by Atlanta, makes sense as this type of player given his postseason experience and a career 101 wRC+. Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen could also fit this description as catchers to work with Amaya.

As for prospect Moises Ballesteros, the Cubs are more optimistic about his chances of becoming a major league catcher than they were a year ago. However, the club is still unsure about his chances of establishing himself as a future everyday catcher. However, there is no doubt about his offensive potential, so perhaps being a designated hitter who occasionally serves as a catcher would be a valuable role, creating more roster options and better matchups.

The bullpen strategy

The Cubs can be more flexible in that area, and Hoyer can add some security there, but don't expect contracts that span three or more years.

“How can you distribute these dollars in the safest way possible?” Hoyer said. “The bullpen bucks are more volatile. You’re more likely to have an impact in the bullpen in minor league free agency or a small trade or waiver claim.”

Hoyer acknowledged that he didn't add enough depth to overcome the injuries the team suffered in April and May. He needs to bolster the end of the 40-man roster with pitchers who can help if early problems arise again.

“It’s almost like expecting three people to go down in April,” Hoyer said. “Because they probably will. Then in April I'll have the depth to do it. Because I think later in the season when most of those guys were ready, we were OK depth-wise.”

By mid-summer, the Cubs had added players like Tyson Miller, Jorge López and Nate Pearson, while young players like Porter Hodge and Luke Little continued to develop in the majors. But by that point it was a little too late. The damage was done.

The Cubs have been intentionally vague about Nico Hoerner's schedule because they don't know exactly where the Gold Glove second baseman will be in his rehab process when spring training begins. Part of the decision to undergo flexor tendon surgery was the realization that Hoerner needed better condition in his right forearm to be able to consistently play shortstop, the position at which he would back up Dansby Swanson and potentially add value to other teams . The Cubs expect a full recovery and do not expect Hoerner to miss significant time next season. That's why they're not looking for an everyday second baseman, but rather a left-handed hitter who can move in an infield with Swanson and Hoerner and Isaac Paredes.

(Top photo of Corbin Burnes: Evan Bernstein / Getty Images)