What we learned from 15 months of conversations with America's most important voters

Swarthmore, Pennsylvania
CNN
—

Shannon Elliott and Kristin Caparra live in the same suburb of Philadelphia. Both are a mix of fear and excitement this election day. Both see their country at a crucial crossroads.

This is where the similarity ends.

“I’m worried about a Trump presidency,” said Elliott, a mother of two teenagers and owner of a gift shop in Swarthmore. “I don’t want to go there anymore.”

Caparra is also worried.

“When I think about Kamala Harris, I think what annoys me the most is her duality, where she says her values ​​haven't changed,” said Caparra, a civil engineer from Drexel Hill who also teaches figure skating. “It’s almost like a signal to the extreme left that I’m still very progressive. And “progressive” is, in my opinion, a name for the Democratic Socialist Party. So she plays on the far left.”

Swarthmore and Drexel Hill are located just six miles apart in Delaware County. But Elliott and Caparra stand on opposite sides of America's vast political divide. Former President Donald Trump is their lightning rod.

Elliott: “I see the way he treats people and bullies them, and those are things I don't want my teenage children to do. Why would I want to see my president like that?”

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Caparra: “I wish they could, quite honestly, look past some of Trump's bad behavior and look at what he means more broadly. … To be honest, he loves this country and my version of this country a little more than the other side.”

Elliott and Caparra are two of the nearly 90 voters we spent time with over the past 15 months as we visited ten states for our All Over the Map project. The goal was to follow the 2024 election campaign through the eyes and experiences of voters who live in key battleground states or are part of critical voting blocs. Or both.

We have learned so much and owe so much to the Americans who invited us into their homes, workplaces and communities. What we learned most is that voters are way ahead of politicians.

From our first trip to our last, they brought to life the themes that most animated the campaign. The cost of living. Border security and immigration. Abortion rights and broader issues of reproductive rights and respect for women. Fear of technology, globalization and the coarseness of our political debate.

Concerns about President Joe Biden's age and stamina were widely raised long before these conversations became common in Washington. We were quickly and then constantly reminded that Trump's support is more varied and complicated than most of his critics understand.

If the former president wins, Caparra's “my version of this country” comment could be revealing.

Die-hard Trump supporters consider him their voice and share his often harsh language toward immigrants, as well as his lies about a stolen and rigged election and the prosecution against him.

They hold their noses and vote for Trump

But we also met many Trump critics who will end up being Trump voters because they say Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats pose a greater threat than Trump's toxic behavior.

Shanen Ebersole fits the bill.

She is a rancher in southwest Iowa who supported former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the Iowa caucuses. She initially hoped Republicans would turn away from Trump, and the behavior she said struck fear into her liberal friends.

But Trump has accepted the nomination and will get Ebersole's vote on Tuesday because she sees Harris as an activist liberal.

“She is willing to impose her agenda on those of us who live completely different lives,” Ebersole said.

If Trump wins, voters like Joseph Knowles and Brian McMutuary will also be part of his comeback.

Knowles is a black auto union worker in Michigan who has never voted Republican for president. But he believes Biden and Harris' clean energy policies are hurting the auto industry and that Democrats are too sympathetic to cultural elites and too soft on illegal immigration.

“We have voted the same way our entire lives — with the Democrats — and nothing changes,” Knowles said. “So let’s try something different.”

McMutuary is also Black and was a lifelong Democrat until he voted for Trump in 2020. He disagrees with Trump on abortion and immigration but sees him as a stronger leader on the world stage and remembers prices were lower when Trump was president.

“When I go to the grocery store, I get what I need, not so much what I want or what the kids want,” said McMutuary, who runs a fast-food restaurant in suburban Milwaukee. “We have a budget, you know. It’s tight.”

The issue environment certainly suggests that the party will lose presidential power this year. Biden's approval ratings are underwater and voters are pessimistic about the economy and the country's direction.

Tamara Varga, a Republican and former Libertarian who lives in Tucson, Arizona, said she believes Trump will increase his support among Latino voters this time.

“The border and the economy,” she said. “People are having a hard time putting food on the table and putting gas in their cars, and that's really affecting them. So I think now they're thinking about their vote and how it's going to impact their budget.”

The fact that the election appears to be so close speaks volumes about Trump and a brand that many voters consider toxic and too unpresidential.

“For me it is very important to remember that a president is a role model. It’s very important,” said Suresh Sharma, an independent from Georgia who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. “Can I tell my daughter and my son, 'Hey, be like this person?'…So in my opinion, the Republican Party should have chosen someone who truly reflects American values.”

If Harris wins, women will be the bedrock of her coalition.

Black women are vital on every battlefield.

Atlanta entrepreneur Lakeysha Hallmon said the Biden-to-Harris transition changed everything.

“There’s a feeling of joy, a feeling of excitement,” Hallmon said. “I think there was an outpouring of support. …It doesn't feel so dark anymore. It actually feels hopeful when there is excitement.”

Shannon Elliott, the small business owner in suburban Philadelphia, is another part of the Harris math. If the vice president is losing some ground among black and Latino men, stronger support among suburban women is one way to make up for it.

“You know we're called 'woke,'” Elliott said of the liberal Swarthmore. “What’s wrong with waking up? Why are you sleeping? Why aren’t you awake and seeing that people are getting hurt and that his behavior is just bringing negative behavior to the surface and that could be dangerous, very dangerous?”

And if Harris wins, it will be because a significant share of Republicans who tried to stop Trump from winning the nomination are willing to vote for Harris to stop him from winning the White House.

“My hope is that he loses and just disappears into the annals of history and we move on,” said Michael Pesce, a Haley-turned-Harris voter from Bucks County in the Philadelphia suburbs.

A Harris victory would also likely underscore the strength of Democratic turnout.

“We did everything we could,” said Angela Lang, executive director of Black Leaders Organizing for Communities, a progressive group north of Milwaukee.

In the final days of this year's campaign, the focus is on the 2020 experience.

Many Trump voters agree with their candidate and say Harris can only win through fraud.

“I don’t think she has a chance of winning in a fair fight,” said Chris Mudd, who runs a solar energy company in Cedar Falls, Iowa. “I just don't think it's possible. I really don't. … Many like me would think the same thing: If Kamala Harris gets 81 million votes, something is really messed up.”

Trump critics, on the other hand, expect a repeat of 2020 if he loses again.

“He’ll never admit he’s losing anything,” said Pesce, the Pennsylvania Haley supporter who is voting for Harris.

Attorney Joan London is another Haley voter turned Harris voter. Like Pesce, she is a Reagan Republican who believes Trump must lose again to give the GOP a chance to return to its conservative roots.

London expects the legal challenges could drag on for weeks. But she is ready for the end of the campaign.

“I’m so tired of political advertising,” she said. “I wish they would go back to advertising prescription drugs.”