Which Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees in ALCS Game 5?

CLEVELAND – If you want to believe that Carlos Rodon is going to make a big splash for the Yankees, there's statistical evidence to back it up.

If you want to believe that Rodon will be attacked by the Guardians on Saturday, then there is statistical evidence to support that argument.

So which Rodon will show up for Game 5 of the ALCS?

The one with the long track record of pitching well at Progressive Field?

Or the one that has been ineffective away from home this season?

Manager Aaron Boone expects a top-notch performance similar to what Rodon showed at home in Game 1.

“I feel great about where he's at and what he's going to bring,” Boone said before the Yankees' thrilling 8-6 victory over the Guardians in Game 4 on Friday night.

Rodon was largely a member of the rival White Sox, posting a 3.08 ERA in 76 innings in 13 career games in Cleveland.

A key to his success against the Guardians – regardless of venue – was holding Jose Ramirez to a .217 average with five extra-base hits (zero home runs) and five RBIs in 46 at-bats.

“It's just one of those things where as a player sometimes you show up in certain spots and play well,” Rodon said. “I'm sure we could find one out of the 30 stadiums where I don't pitch well. And luckily I can pitch well in this stadium because (Saturday) is going to be a pretty big game.”

Rodon did not pitch at Progressive Field during the regular season. If he did that, his splits on the home road might not be as drastic as a 3.11 ERA at Yankee Stadium and a 4.69 ERA away from his home stadium.

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He had a similar number of home runs, walks and strikeouts allowed, but allowed significantly more hits on the road.

“I didn’t think much about it,” Rodon said. “I don't know. I can't tell you why.”

Rodon believes, “What have you done for me lately?” is the most important factor. And he allowed just one solo home run while striking out nine and striking out none to open the ALCS.

“I was aware of where I was emotionally,” Rodon said. “And then I think as far as focus… I'm always very focused on the task at hand when I'm on the mound, but I kept it pretty simple. I thought I would stay inside and just control what was in front of me. And I just dismissed everything behind me and things I couldn’t control.”

The Yankees have a handful of young players making their playoff debuts in 2024, but Boone believes a 31-year-old left-hander with postseason experience could be the one who benefited from getting rid of his jitters.

Rodon lost command in the fourth inning of his ALDS start.

“Obviously he's been in the league for a long time, has had great success, been through a lot with us – he struggled last year and bounced back the same way this year,” Boone said. “Like everyone else, I feel like he really gained a lot from the experience he got as a pitcher in the postseason with the Yankees.”