Who will win the election in Arizona? Donald Trump, Kamala Harris updates

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are both hoping to win Arizona and secure its 11 electoral votes.

In 2020, President Joe Biden secured a narrow victory with 49.4 percent of the vote, trailing Trump's victory in 2016 by about 49 percent. Ahead of the 2024 vote, polls consistently showed a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, with just one point separating them in the final days before Election Day.

Arizona is one of seven swing states that both parties have targeted in hopes of securing the 11 Electoral College votes that could help them surpass the 270 mark needed to win the White House . It is home to Maricopa County, one of the areas where Trump suspected voter fraud after the 2020 election.

With 52 percent of the votes counted, Trump was ahead of Harris with 49.8 percent, according to CNN projections.

How did Arizona vote in 2016 and 2020?

In 2016, Arizona voted for Trump. The Republican won with around 49 percent of the vote against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 45 percent.

Arizona then flipped to blue in 2020, with Biden winning with 49.4 percent of the vote to Trump's 49 percent. Biden won by fewer than 11,000 votes out of more than 2.3 million cast.

In Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and is the most populous in the state, Biden won with 50.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 48.1 percent, prompting him to claim that the state's election was rigged – claims that have been proven have proven to be false. Since then, election officials have increased security and improved transparency tools.

As of November 2020, 1.37 million people were registered as Democrats, compared to 1.5 million Republicans, for a total of 4.2 million.

As of October 2024, the number of registered Democratic Party voters had fallen to 1.26 million, while 1.56 million joined the Republican Party. A total of 4.36 million people were eligible to vote.

What were the polling averages in Arizona?

Ahead of Election Day 2024, polls consistently showed a close race.

At the end of August, Harris had a slight lead over Trump with 538 points, but took the lead in September. In one of the last polls, Trump was at 50 percent, Harris at 49 percent.

Immigration and abortion are among the biggest problems

As a border state, immigration has been a key issue for Arizonans this election cycle. A vote on illegal border crossings, migrants' use of forged documents and fentanyl trafficking, known as Proposition 314, received mixed support because of the areas covered.

The measure included a provision that would allow local law enforcement to arrest anyone who entered the U.S. illegally from Mexico.

Regarding abortion, another proposal was on the ballot that would prevent the state from banning abortions until the fetus is viable and allowing subsequent abortions to protect a pregnant woman's physical or mental health.

In total, 13 ballot measures were voted on in Arizona.

In Arizona, where more than 1.4 million votes had already been cast a week before Election Day, Republicans accounted for 42 percent of those votes while Democrats accounted for 35 percent, according to tracking data.

Trump made more stops in Arizona than Harris

Trump held at least five rallies in the state during the campaign, including a stop in Tucson for a visit to the border. Harris visited three times, including a border visit on September 27 and a rally in Phoenix on October 31.