Whoever wins, America will have to turn around again

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On Tuesday, Americans will take part in what will likely be the most consequential presidential election of our lifetime. The candidates could not be more different, but the challenge before them will be the same: how to renew a sense of national purpose and dynamism in a country that may have reached the peak of its competitiveness?

America is still enjoying its post-pandemic growth spurt. However, major economic, political and social headwinds lie ahead. Partisan politics will not end with this election; in fact, they could be getting worse. Productivity is slowing, the population is aging, social media silo bubbles are creating division, and the country faces competitive threats from China and other emerging economies that are increasingly banding together in their own post-Washington consensus alliances.

Yes, the United States still has a dynamic business environment, great universities, rich natural resources, and a relatively robust industrial base. Yet it struggles with bureaucracy and inefficiency in both the public and private sectors, a self-interested elite, a workforce not equipped for the 21st century, and a severely weakened sense of national unity. Most importantly, America today no longer has a common purpose or even an idea of ​​what the common good might be.

Can the ship be turned? According to a Rand Corporation report titled “The Sources of Renewed National Dynamism,” such recoveries are rare but possible. It examines centuries of history to examine how and whether great powers can regain their sense of purpose in times of crisis.

It's a sobering read. Countries are rarely able to reverse a decline in competition once it has begun. But a handful could foresee such a decline (as measured by a variety of factors, from share of global GDP to trade and military power to international leadership and cultural influence). They could then work to prevent this and develop new, sustainable systems for growth and shared prosperity.

Two illustrative examples were Britain in the 1840s and the USA after the 1890s. During these periods, countries were able to address a variety of economic, political, and social problems with major reform efforts that led to national renewal. Victorian Britain, for example, struggled with the negative environmental and labor impacts of industrialization, as well as growing inequality and political corruption. Post-Gilded Age America had many of the same problems.

Nevertheless, both countries were ultimately able to pass far-reaching reforms that improved workers' rights and labor standards, increased access to education, opened up voting rights to new groups of voters, and so on. This ultimately led to decades of broad-based growth and a renewed national purpose.

How did they do it? First, they were able to diagnose the problem before it became unsolvable. As the Rand report notes, there are several examples of failing states, such as the Ottoman Empire and the Soviet Union, that did not recognize their problems until decline was assured. In this sense, the United States may have an advantage today, as it is widely understood on both sides of the aisle and across social classes that the country faces major internal and external challenges.

However, the correct diagnosis alone is not enough to avert decline. Countries also need a problem-solving mindset and far-reaching efforts to address their various challenges. The national renewal of Victorian Britain and progressive America reflect this point. In both cases, political and business figures, activists, unions and various grassroots movements were part of an intensive national discussion about reforms. I would argue that this factor is also present in the US today, where, despite political polarization, there is an intense bottom-up debate about how the country should change.

A certain level of public capacity and a functioning government are crucial to any reform effort (we hope that Donald Trump will not weaken these things if he is elected again). Perhaps the most important factor in national renewal, however, is the consent of both elites and average citizens. In much of the history examined in the Rand report, renewed national dynamism overlapped significantly with the rise of nonprofit elites. Whether they were landed aristocrats in 19th-century Britain who supported reform or turn-of-the-century American progressives who recognized that their ability to make money might be at risk in such an unequal and socially unstable country, the consent of the Elite to the reform effort was crucial to national renewal.

Does America have that kind of consent today? I am much more pessimistic on this point. While groups like the Patriotic Millionaires and the Never Trump branch of the Republican Party are a step in the right direction, I hear from far too many privileged people who simply won't put the common good above their own tax rate. Professionals who take huge pay cuts to enter public service are vilified and there is far too much cynicism about our ability to change the country for the better.

America has big problems, but it still has big strengths. Our science and technology, our entrepreneurship, our strong consumer base and our can-do spirit are the envy of the world. But these are not laurels to rest on. I pray that the next president can be honest about what is broken and bring Americans together to fix it.

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