Why AP didn't call the Pennsylvania Senate race

WASHINGTON (AP) — It's still too early for the Senate contest in Pennsylvania between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick.

McCormick has a lead of around 31,000 votes, but that is shrinking as outstanding votes continue to be counted. The gap between the candidates of about half a percentage point also qualifies the race for an automatic recount.

McCormick overtook Casey after about 80% of the estimated votes were counted just before midnight Tuesday. Casey initially held a lead over McCormick when only about 40% of the estimated votes were counted, due in part to mail-in ballots that have historically favored Democrats. McCormick fared better in votes cast on Election Day.

CANDIDATES: Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) and three others

WINNER: Too early to call.

POLL CLOSURE: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE: Casey comes from a well-known political family in the state. The son of a popular two-term governor, he served in statewide elected offices as comptroller and treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006. McCormick is a West Point graduate, Army veteran and former investment firm CEO who lost the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz in 2022. Sharp exchanges have punctuated the contest.

McCormick has accused Casey of being weak and a career politician. Casey called McCormick a wealthy, eccentric hedge fund CEO. Pennsylvania Democrats have enjoyed success against Republican rivals in recent Senate and gubernatorial elections.

John Fetterman beat Oz by 5 points in 2022, and Gov. Josh Shapiro also soundly defeated Doug Mastriano that year, becoming the first governor since 1966 to be elected to succeed a member of his party.

WHY AP DIDN'T PLACE THE RACE: Casey still has a narrow path to victory.

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