Why Hurricane Rafael's Path Across the Gulf of Mexico Is Unclear | Hurricane Center

Hurricane Rafael formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday evening and is expected to hit parts of Cuba as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday after rapidly intensifying over warm waters. But once the storm reaches the Gulf of Mexico, hurricane forecasters and models continue to disagree about what happens next.

Rafael's trajectory forecast through the Gulf has shifted back and forth in recent days, sometimes showing the storm ultimately heading toward the Texas-Louisiana border and sometimes pointing as far east as Plaquemines Parish.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast for 10 a.m. Wednesday included perhaps the most dramatic track shift yet, showing Rafael making a sharp turn toward the Texas-Mexico border shortly after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Still, NHC forecasters said uncertainty about Rafael's intensity later this week was “greater than normal” and that it was too early to tell what impact, if any, the storm might have on the Gulf Coast.

“A lot of the disagreement seems to be how strong a ridge of high pressure north of Rafael will be,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

A stronger ridge north of Rafael would steer it left over the Gulf of Mexico, a pattern that favors the European hurricane model, Klotzbach said.

This curve would put Rafael on a route through the southern Gulf and help avoid some of the wind shear and dry air in the northern Gulf, conditions that would help weaken the storm.

“This would likely keep Rafael as a stronger storm longer, but could also mean the storm never reaches the U.S.,” Klotzbach said.

But another hurricane model, the Global Forecast System, has largely favored a path toward the northern Gulf Coast, with the storm generally aiming toward Louisiana.

In that case, Klotzbach said, the storm would encounter strong wind shear and dry air in the northern Gulf and weaken significantly before reaching land.

Meteorologists are still not sure which path Rafael will take because it is not entirely clear where the steering ridge will form and build up over the next few days, said NHC hurricane specialist Philippe Papin.

“It has to do with the flow pattern of the United States, where there is quite a bit of uncertainty,” Papin said.

Papin said the NHC is requesting additional data from weather stations across the country this week and is sending a plane on a monitoring mission over the Gulf on Wednesday to collect more data on weather conditions in the United States

Once this additional data is collected and integrated into hurricane models, Papin said meteorologists hope to be able to accurately determine Rafael's path through the Gulf and its potential intensity.

As of Wednesday morning, the ridge was forecast to extend westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, likely causing Rafael to turn westward and move over the southern Gulf of Mexico.