Why “Joker 2” will have problems at the box office

In 2019, “Joker” became an unlikely box office hit and cultural juggernaut.

Sure, the R-rated crime drama was based on the ubiquitous Batman villain. But this version of the Clown Prince of Crime was darker and more disturbing than your average comic book adaptation – more akin to Martin Scorsese's “Taxi Driver” than the DC anti-hero adventure “The Suicide Squad.”

Directed by Todd Phillips and starring Joaquin Phoenix, Joker beat the odds (and controversies over safety concerns) to gross $1.07 billion in global ticket sales on a shoestring budget of $55 million. After the Warner Bros. release became one of the most profitable superhero films in history and garnered eleven Oscar nominations, a sequel was all but inevitable.

But the second film, “Joker: Folie à Deux,” which hits theaters Friday, may not get the last laugh.

The sequel, which brings back Phoenix as Arthur Fleck and introduces Lady Gaga as his accomplice Harley Quinn, plans to collect $50 million to $65 million from 4,100 North American theaters in its theatrical debut. That's a significant drop from the first film, which grossed a record $96.2 million on the same weekend in 2019 and set an opening weekend record in October. As for “Folie à Deux,” projected ticket sales aren’t exactly cause for concern, but they are somewhat of a disappointment given the blockbuster success of the original. The sequel cost well over $200 million.

“Joker 2” is expected to do significantly better at the international box office with estimates of $80 million to $85 million over the weekend. With these projections, the film could gross between $130 million and $150 million worldwide by Sunday.

On paper, “Joker: Folie à Deux” has the makings of another certified sensation. Phoenix reprises his Oscar-winning role, starring opposite an actress known for being equally dedicated to her craft – and who just happens to be one of the biggest pop stars in the world. However, industry experts believe that the sequel's premiere at the Venice Film Festival ultimately dampened some of the enthusiasm and contributed to weaker-than-expected box office projections. It makes sense that Warner Bros. would want to bring “Folie à Deux” back to the Lido after “Joker” took home the festival's top prize five years ago. But critics and festival goers weren't as enthusiastic about the sequel, leading to weeks of word of mouth before general audiences could see the film. Reviews for the original film were also mixed – Joker landed at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, while Folie à Deux currently sits at 63% – so it's possible that curiosity is once again spurring moviegoers to forcibly go judge the film for yourself.

Joker served as a dark and spooky origin story for Batman's infamous enemy, portrayed in this cinematic universe as a reclusive, fighting stand-up comedian and part-time clown. In the sequel, co-written by Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker meets his mad muse Harley Quinn while serving a sentence for murder at Arkham Asylum. Zazie Beetz also returns as Arthur's former neighbor, while Brendan Gleeson and Catherine Keener join the cast. Although the film was labeled a musical, Phillips said the categorization was not entirely accurate, even though the story contains several song and dance numbers.

“Most of the music in the film is actually just dialogue,” the director said diversity. “It's just that Arthur doesn't have the words to say what he wants to say, so he sings them instead.”

Although “Joker 2” isn’t the only newcomer this weekend, the comic sequel will easily top the domestic box office charts. Also new in theaters is Lionsgate's “White Bird,” which is considered a prequel and sequel to the 2017 entry-level hit “Wonder,” starring Jacob Tremblay. Single-digit numbers are targeted for the weekend. That's a notable drop from “Wonder,” which opened at $27 million and ended its run at a respectable $132 million domestic and $314 worldwide.

Marc Forster directed “White Bird,” which is not about Tremblay’s character Auggie from “Wonder,” but rather his middle school bully Julian, portrayed by Bryce Gheisar. Nowadays, Julian is ostracized for his treatment of Auggie, so his grandmother tries to help him turn his life around by telling him about her childhood as a young Jewish girl during the Holocaust. In diversity In the review, Dennis Harvey wrote that “the storytelling here goes beyond a youthful tenor to achieve an all-ages appeal.”

Despite the potential for broad commercial prospects, “White Bird” is shaping up to be the latest in a string of underperforming Lionsgate releases, following “Megalopolis,” survival thriller “Never Let Go,” assassin comedy “The Killer's Game” and last weekend's video game adaptation “Borderlands.”