Will the Suns be right about the NBA's second frontcourt?

Less than 72 hours before media day, a seismic trade occurred for most NBA teams Friday night, swapping key pieces Karl-Anthony Towns from the Minnesota Timberwolves for Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle from the New York Knicks.

On the surface, the deal is easy for some to parse. This simply involves two sides swapping pieces with chunky long-term fits. Towns is a better player than Randle, so throw in a solid backup defender like DiVincenzo and you're good to go.

It's much, much more than that, however, and another Western Conference participant escaping the punishing terms of ridiculous salary caps, terms that Phoenix Suns owner Mat Ishbia is confident about.

Why did the Timberwolves trade Karl-Anthony Towns?

Minnesota is coming off a 56-win season, the second-most in the franchise's 36-year history. It may be the best team the Timberwolves have ever had, and the only reason it isn't without controversy is because the other team, which had 58 wins in 2004, was led by Kevin Garnett, one of the greatest power forwards of all time became.

Towns is right behind Garnett when it comes to his overall career and contributions in Minnesota, with those two far surpassing everyone else. Anthony Edwards will ultimately replace both if he stays long-term. And considering we all know this, it was surprising to travel to Minnesota in the postseason and hear that Towns was announced last in the starting lineup, the spot for The Star player.

The Timberwolves defeated the Denver Nuggets in the second round, a series that felt in some ways like the NBA Finals because they played so well and Denver was the defending champion. They ran out of steam in the conference finals, but got everyone but Kyle Anderson back and certainly entered this season as one of the four teams in the West with serious title tie entering the year.

And the Timberwolves jumped on it because they were worried about the future.

Towns was signed to the same $224 million supermax contract as Devin Booker in the summer of 2022. Towns is not Booker. He's an incredibly skilled big man, but he also has weaknesses, most notably the tween status of his 4/5 versatility on defense, which the Knicks now have to figure out, and his previous playoff hiccups, which include constant stupid ones Fouls belonged.

On the other hand, Towns is coming off a postseason in which he was excellent in the first two rounds and did as good a job as possible at times in defending Kevin Durant (arguably the best 4 in the world) and Nikola Jokic (undoubtedly the best 5 in the world). has accomplished. in spots. Huh. Maybe the Knicks and Tom Thibodeau will actually figure this out.

Minnesota was on track for the second-highest luxury tax bill this year, just behind the Suns. According to Yossi Gozlan of CapSheets, this trade will already save them around $25 million this season. And if you're unfamiliar with how the tax works, these penalties can multiply over time. Plus, this Timberwolves team would only get more expensive.

Ishbia would have shrugged and simply paid for it. Most of the ownership is not Ishbia, and the T-Wolves have been in a bitter ownership dispute for several years that will continue. ESPN's Brian Windhorst goes into more recent details here if you're interested.

The Minnesota side of the trade sees basketball reasons beyond just the financial implications.

The Athletics Jon Krawczynski explained all of this in detail, pointing out that key young role players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Red likely wouldn't have long-term futures with the Timberwolves if Towns' mammoth contract stood. This is a giant “if” with flashing text, but if Minnesota actually pays for both and ends up giving Rudy Gobert a mini-extension, it could be worth it along with DiVincenzo's contract, which runs through 2027.

The Randle part of this equation can't be evaluated until we see him on the field. He's a hexagonal peg in a round hole when it comes to putting together a squad with a lot of continuity and implementing someone with his own style of play. It will certainly take time to iron out the positives while also making up for the loss of distance without Towns' superior shooting ability. There's no way Minnesota has as good a championship chance this season as it did 12 hours ago, a huge win for other Western Conference opponents trying to win now (like the Suns).

Maybe after some serious adjustments it will work. Or Randle, whose contract essentially expires if he decides to decline his player option next summer, will be traded with his $28.9 million moving account in the middle of the season. I'm talking about Minnesota, who after so long has sat comfortably on the Reid train and has a defined depression in his couch cushion. Minnesota could pull this off and still remain a major threat in my opinion, even without the scoring touch that Randle obviously provides.

Krawczynski points out that, aside from the 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks and their heavy free agent spending after a World Series berth, the only real way for Minnesota to sustain that beyond the 2024-25 season was to have one To win titles and use this income in the team.

The Athletics John Hollinger points out that this move will likely place Minnesota well below the second apron in the 2025-26 season. This would remove some of the team-building restrictions that are currently limited and help break the second-court streak that can eventually lead to frozen draft picks.

The T-Wolves aren't the only ones taking action in this regard.

Could the Suns be right about the 2nd frontcourt?

Earlier this summer we saw a lot of fear money.

The Denver Nuggets let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk. The Los Angeles Clippers made disrespectful contract offers to Paul George before letting him move to Philadelphia. LeBron James was open to taking a pay cut with the Los Angeles Lakers if it meant signing certain free agents. The Dallas Mavericks used multiple second-round picks to release Tim Hardaway Jr. in Detroit.

It all had to do with the second apron. Denver, the most glaring example of all this, has insisted that this is not the full motivation. However, the Clippers even bizarrely went so far as to include this in their statement regarding George's departure. James' extension after the Lakers failed to sign one of those desirable targets left LA less than $50,000 below the second frontcourt, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks. According to Hollinger, the Towns trade will also cause minimal distress to the Knicks.

Everyone meticulously dances around this thing while Ishbia storms through the thing like the Kool-Aid Man with drywall.

And that's because Ishbia doesn't believe the restrictions are as severe as teams make them out to be. He even went so far as to say the quiet part out loud that teams use this as an excuse for the main motivation – not to spend so much money.

“It’s a good way for other teams and owners to hide behind the reasons why they aren’t re-signing players,” Ishbia said Burns & Gambo from Arizona Sports Mid-July.

Ishbia re-signed Grayson Allen. He re-signed Royce O'Neale. He even gave Josh Okogie a sizable raise just to make his contract more tradeable. Spotrac has reduced Minnesota's updated tax bill to about $77 million. Whatever the number, the full parameters of the deal are clear, even doubling them would put the total at over $30 million less than the Suns' $188 million due.

Ishbia does it because he believes this team can win.

“If I didn’t feel like we had a chance to win an NBA championship, I promise you we wouldn’t have the highest salary and luxury tax in NBA history,” Ishbia said. “We wouldn't do it. I'm not saying that's not a reason for us not to build a team, but I'm not stupid with money, I don't throw money away. But I’m also a fan and I want to field the best team out there.”

What the second apron actually does is make roster construction immensely more difficult for those who spend a lot of money. If the challenge becomes too great, first-round picks will be “frozen,” meaning the Suns won’t be able to trade that pick until they unfreeze it. Worse still, the selection could later be delayed until the end of the first round. Ishbia talked about how teams qualify for this extreme penalty if they are in the second frontcourt three out of four years.

“Last year didn’t even count,” he said. “So for the next two years we will be in the second run and very expensive. The luxury tax will be high this year, and it will be high again next year. And we'll compete against each other and see how we do.

“And then we have to try to get out of there in the third year. That would probably be the best and smartest decision because it would keep our picks from being frozen and pushed to the back of the draft.”

This third year would be the payroll for the 2026-27 season. This is especially the case if extension-eligible Durant disappears from the books. An important disclaimer here is that the tax won't go into effect and finalized until the end of the season, so the Suns could theoretically enter this season as a second frontcourt team before moving out of that space by making some deals at the trade deadline. But that doesn't mean Durant is definitely gone. Ishbia also stated that it might be a different story if the Suns are still in contention.

But it sounds like the Suns are finally and calmly hitting the eject button on the second frontcourt while their opponents have been frantically smashing the emergency glass left and right to shatter it.

To answer the question in the headline: The Suns could certainly be right about the second frontcourt.

All of this is done on a case-by-case basis with compelling context. In their case, it's hard to imagine a better squad, as they were reportedly handcuffed by the restrictions in the second run-up. They acquired O'Neale and Tyus Jones for pennies considering how much good players at their positions are worth. They maneuvered in the NBA Draft to get a second pick and used it on Oso Ighodaro, another player like Ryan Dunn who has a chance to quickly become a reliable rotation player.

Denver absolutely should have spent money to keep Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. A definitive stance on Minnesota is a little harder to calculate, especially if the organization spends later in Edwards' prime securing the rest of its team core.

If there's one thing that can define the short time we've gotten to know Ishbia's suns, it's that they're not afraid to defy the norm. We'll soon find out if this courage is a burden.

Follow @KellanOlson