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Will winter be cold in Florida? Here are the forecasters' predictions

Posted on by Vanessa
Will winter be cold in Florida? Here are the forecasters' predictions

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)

Most of the country could see a “calmer, gentler” winter, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac. But Florida can expect it to be wet.

“We are predicting a moderate, uneventful winter – perhaps a welcome change from the extremes of recent years,” Carol Connare, the Almanac's editor-in-chief, said in the season's forecast.

However, Florida's winter will be “mostly cooler than usual,” the almanac's forecast says. “February is expected to be 1°C above average, with near-average temperatures for the remainder of the season.” And rainfall is expected to be slightly above normal across the state.

The competing Farmer's Almanac simply says, “The Southeast and Atlantic Coast are expected to experience a warm winter with above-average temperatures,” with “lots of clouds, areas of fog” and “rain from the Carolinas south to Florida.”

AccuWeather also predicts a (mostly) mild winter

“As people prepare their skis and snowblowers with snow on their minds, AccuWeather forecasters predict the season will be mild for most of the United States, similar to last winter, which was the warmest on record.” said Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist. “However, that is only part of the story, as waves of freezing air periodically send freezing air across the country and the likelihood of snow increases.”

La Niña, a natural climate pattern that influences weather, is expected to be weak for most of the winter, creating more variability, and the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico that have contributed to the strong hurricanes our state could experience this season mean milder air masses for the central and eastern USA

We could see cold weather in February if the polar vortex hits the eastern U.S., as it has in past years, but nothing is certain at this point, AccuWeather said.

NOAA calls for a warmer, drier south and a wetter north

However, don't rely on the forecast rain. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter forecast last week, predicting that the Southeast and Gulf Coast could see drier-than-average conditions, with warmer temperatures across much of the country.

“The greatest likelihood of drier than average conditions is in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Texas and southern New Mexico,” said NOAA, which also attributed the conditions to a weak La Niña.

“La Niña conditions are expected to develop later in the fall and typically result in a more northerly storm track during the winter months, causing the southern tier of the country to become warmer and drier,” NOAA said.

Biting or mild? View NOAA's 2024 winter weather forecast for where you live

When does winter start?

It depends.

The meteorological winter, which lasts from December to February and defines the seasons we usually think of when we talk about spring, summer, autumn and winter, begins on Sunday December 1st.

Astronomical winter begins with the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year when the North Pole tilts away from the sun. This year that's Saturday, December 21st, which is 5:21 a.m. ET.

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