Yankees vs. Guardians 2024 ALCS Preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

By Chris Kirschner, Zack Meisel and Eno Sarris

The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will meet in an ALCS, which is a rematch of the 2022 ALDS won by New York. The Yankees enter this series after defeating Kansas City in four games, while the Guardians defeated division rival Detroit in five games. The best-of-seven ALCS begins Monday in New York, with the winner advancing to the World Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Mets.

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Playtimes

Game 1: Guardians at Yankees, Monday, October 14, 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 2: Guardians at Yankees, Tuesday, October 15, 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 3: Yankees at Guardians, Thursday, October 17, time to be announced, to be announced

Game 4: Yankees at Guardians, Friday, October 18, time to be announced, to be announced

Game 5: Yankees at Guardians, Saturday, October 19, time to be announced, to be announced (if necessary)

Game 6: Guardians at Yankees, Monday, October 21st, time to be announced, to be announced (if necessary)

Game 7: Guardians at Yankees, Tuesday, October 22, time to be announced, to be announced (if necessary)

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Pitching matches

When it comes to rotation, you have to give the Yankees the lead. Gerrit Cole has gotten his sitting fastball back to where it was last year before the injury, and while the movement and command aren't quite old-school (nor is the strikeout rate), with just eight Ks in his 12 innings after the season) He has looked pretty good in his starts. Cole will be able to start two games in this series, and the Yankees are hoping he gives the bullpen a break with an excellent, deep start. How far Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt can get into games may raise some questions, but in general the starters in pinstripes are more inclined to go deep into games and keep them close enough for the Bronx bashers to outwork them can.

The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who with two excellent break balls and good command in his first 300 big league innings posted an ERA in the low 3s that is reminiscent of more than one Cleveland ace in the past. He'll have the same schedule as Cole unless the Guardians want to play around with rest days to get the most out of their No. 1. Matthew Boyd threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings in two starts in the ALDS, and Alex Cobb was competent if not dominant, but they are a step behind the back end of the Yankees' rotation.

The true hero of the Guardians' staff is Cade Smith. The rookie — who probably should get more attention for Rookie of the Year hardware than he will — pitched 6 1/3 innings in the Division Series with just one run allowed. He appeared in every game, which was a boon for Cleveland that will be hard to replicate in a seven-game series. Of course, a bullpen that posted the best ERA in the regular season and pitched 58 percent of the innings against Detroit in the Division Series has other heroes, too — it's not just Emmanuel Clase — but he'll be tested harder now. Can the Guardians' replacements hold their own in a seven-game tie, especially in the middle of the series when they have three games in a row without rest?

The Yankees' bullpen may not be as bad as some thought; They pitched 15 2/3 scoreless innings against the Royals, and their key relievers – Tommy Kahnle, Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver – appear to have found their best roles. Because they have some firepower in the field and are probably the better starters, the Yankees have the overall pitching advantage. – Sarris

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Why the Yankees will win

After being a major problem for most of the regular season, the Yankees have figured out their bullpen. Led primarily by Weaver, Kahnle and Holmes, the Yankees' bullpen crushed the Royals in the ALDS. Their relievers held Kansas City to a .143 batting average and recorded 15 strikeouts in 15 2/3 scoreless innings. The Guardians had the best bullpen in the regular season, but if the Yankees' bullpen can continue its dominance, it could at least close the gap on Cleveland's greatest strength.

The Yankees have a clear advantage offensively. The Guardians simply lack the firepower they possess. If New York continues to get great offense from Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera, it would put tremendous pressure on Cleveland as Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, two of the top three hitters in MLB this season, are in line for a breakout offense performances. If these two start hitting, Cleveland will have trouble keeping up. – Kirschner

Why the Guardians will win

Leave it to the Guardians fans in Section 446, who chanted “I believe in Stephen Vogt” in the sixth inning of Game 5 on Saturday afternoon! OK, they also shouted a few profanities regarding Tarik Skubal and the Yankees, but Vogt implausibly led a team that many predicted would win 75-85 games to the ALCS.

The Guardians will follow the same formula — a heavy dose of the league's best bullpen and just enough timely hitting — that allowed them to eke out a series win against the red-hot Tigers. With the Yankees, the Mets and the Dodgers, there are still three big-spending MLB darlings with big market shares left in the playoffs. The Guardians would love nothing more than to spoil the ratings bonanza the league is probably drooling over. Additionally, it has been 76 years since the franchise won a title. Although the Yankees' 15-year tenure probably feels like 76 years to New Yorkers, Cleveland is due. — Meisel

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Stanton was one of the Yankees' best postseason players in franchise history. His .987 OPS ranks him fourth all-time (minimum 30 games), with only Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Reggie Jackson ahead of him on the leaderboard. Stanton was locked up at the plate against the Royals; In the ALDS, he went 6 for 16 with three extra-base hits, including a go-ahead home run in Game 3.

Although Stanton has reached the fifth spot in the Yankees' rankings, recent performances suggest that moving him to the mop-up spot could be beneficial. It would force opposing pitchers to face the full weight of Soto, Judge and Stanton in a row instead of catcher Austin Wells breaking up the sequence.

Given the way Stanton swings the bat, he has the potential to single-handedly lead the Yankees to their first World Series appearance since 2009. – Kirschner

Guardians Player Spotlight: Tanner Bibee, RHP

In his second big league start, Bibee found himself wide-eyed on the mound at Yankee Stadium across from Cole. That was the start of a season worthy of a runner-up finish for AL Rookie of the Year. This time around, a potential matchup between the two in Game 2 shouldn't feel as daunting, despite the higher stakes and added pressure that comes with a trip to the Bronx in October.

Bibee was well positioned in his first taste of the postseason, allowing two runs in 8 2/3 innings in some starts in the ALDS. The Guardians will have a lot of pitching plans to sort out, but Bibee will certainly get the ball when his turn comes. — Meisel

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Story from the tape

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A must for the Yankees

How a dark memory from the end of last season motivated the Yankees and Aaron Judge to ALDS glory

Inside Aaron Judge's swing change that helped him have another monster season

Five takeaways from the Yankees' regular season and what's next in the postseason

Why Aaron Judge called a players-only meeting that helped jump-start the Yankees' run in September

Insights into the Yankees' scouting and development of Luis Gil

A must-read for parents or guardians

The Guardians' path to a long-awaited World Series begins and ends with their dominant bullpen

The unsung heroes who catapulted the Guardians into October

How the Guardians improbably marched into the playoffs

The stories behind the Guardians' breakthrough take center stage in the bullpen

Inside Stephen Vogt's path to becoming Cleveland's manager

(Top image: Juan Soto: Luke Hales / Getty Images; Steven Kwan: ​​Keith Gillett / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)