Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 Prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends and stats

Aaron Judge bounced back from his postseason slump and the New York Yankees took a stranglehold on the American League Championship Series with a 6-3 victory over the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday night. With the Yankees up two games to zero, the series shifts to Progressive Field in Cleveland for Game 3 on Thursday night.

The likely American League MVP had just 1 RBI in the playoffs, but came to life with a sacrifice fly to the 2 on Tuesday night^nd inning that went in one and then the 2-run blast in the 7th^Th to give the Bronx Bombers control of this series. Yes, New York held serve and now Cleveland can potentially play three in a row at their park, but the data suggests the Guardians now only have a long way to advance to the World Series. Of the 91 teams that took a 2-0 lead in a best-of-7 series, 76 (83.5%) won the series.

Clay Holmes came on as a substitute for Gerrit Cole in the 5th minute^Th inning and got the win for New York. Tanner Bibee got just four outs for the Guardians, allowing 5 hits and 3 runs (2 earned), and suffered the loss.

Clarke Schmidt will take the mound for the Yankees in Game 3 on Thursday night. The Guardians have not yet announced their starter.

Let's delve a little deeper into Game 3 and find a sweat or two.

We have all the information and analysis you need to know before the game, including the latest on how to catch the first pitch, the scheduled pitching matchup, current team performance, player stats and of course our predictions, tips & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and our team of experts.

Bet the Edge is your source for all things sports betting. Get all the insights from Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick weekdays at 6pm ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Game details and how to watch Yankees @ Guardians – Game 3

● Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2024
● Time: 5:08 p.m. ET
● Site: Progressive field
● City: Cleveland, OH
● TV/Streaming: TBS, TruTV, MAX

Don't miss a second of the action and stay up to date with the latest team stats and player news. Check out our daily routine MLB schedule pagealong with detailed matchup pages that are updated live in-game with every out.

ALCS Game 3 Odds for Yankees @ Guardians

The latest odds from Wednesday:

● Money line: Cleveland Guardians (-105), New York Yankees (-115)
● Spread: Guards +1.5 (-185), Yankees -1.5 (+150)
● In total: 7

Listen to the Rotoworld Baseball Show for the latest player news, waiver claims, roster picks and more from our experts all season long. Click here or download it wherever you get your podcasts.

Likely starting players for New York @ Cleveland

● Pitching matchup on Thursday (October 17): Clarke Schmidt vs. TBD

○ Guardian: TBD – It will most likely be either Matthew Boyd or a bullpen arm starting for Cleveland. Boyd has started two games this postseason, throwing 6.2 innings with 5 hits and 10 Ks. The Guardians bullpen has thrown 36.2 innings in the playoffs and has a 2.77 ERA.

○ Yankees: Schmidt (0-0, 3.86 ERA) – Started one game in the Division Series against KC, recording 4 hits and 2 earned runs while recording 4 strikeouts over 4.2 innings.

Rotoworld is still there for you All the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions, where you can filter by league, team, position and news type!

Top betting trends and insights to know ahead of ALCS Game 3: Yankees @ Guardians

• Teams that won the first two games of a best-of-seven series went on to win the series 83.5% of the time.
• After reaching the UNDER total in each of the games against Kansas City, all ALCS games reached the OVER total.
• The Yankees are 3-3 ATS this postseason.
• The Guardians are 2-5 ATS and 4-3 OVER this postseason.
• Aaron Judge is now 3-18 (.167) with 1 HR and 4 RBIs this postseason.
• Jose Ramirez is 4-24 (.167) with 2 HR, 1 2B and 3 strikeouts this postseason.
• Steven Kwan has scored at least one goal in each of Cleveland's 7 playoff games. He is 13-29 (.448).
• New York and Cleveland met in the playoffs six times: 1997, 1998, 2007, 2017, 2020 and 2022. The Yankees won 4 of the 6 series, including the most recent series – the 2022 ALDS, 3 games to 2. Overall the Yankees are in the Playoffs 16-12 vs. Cleveland.

Playoff stories for Cleveland and New York

• Guardian: Cleveland has an all-time record of 63-62. They appeared in the World Series six times – 1920, 1948, 1954, 1995, 1997 and 2016 – and lost six times.
• Yankees: The Yankees want to reach their 41st place^st AL pennant. New York has won 27 world championships. Their last World Series win was in 2009. They have been to the playoffs 57 times.

If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on today's schedule, check out our MLB Top Trends Tool on NBC Sports!

Expert tips and predictions for Game 3 of the ALCS between Cleveland and New York

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates predictions for every moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points such as past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we place its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to determine a relative confidence level for each bet.

Here are the best bets our model predicts for Game 3 between the Guardians and Yankees on Thursday:

• Money line: NBC Sports recommends a game against the Yankees on the moneyline
• Spread: NBC Sports is leaning toward a game with the Yankees on the run line
• Total number of runs: NBC Sports recommends a game with OVER of 7 Total Runs

Want even more best MLB bets and predictions from our team of experts and tools? Check this out Expert MLB Predictions NBC Sports page for moneyline, spread and overall picks for each of the games on today's calendar!

Follow our experts on social media to stay up to date with the latest staff content: